Benghazi: Repercussions?

On 11/09/2012, a terrorist attack on the US Consulate in Benghazi and, several hours later, a follow-up attack on the nearby Consulate Annex resulted in the death of the US Ambassador to Libya, Christopher Stevens, and fellow Americans Sean Smith, Tyrone Woods and Glen Doherty.  This was the first death of a serving US Ambasador since 1979.  While the debate in the US continues over an inadequate Administration response to the attacks and whether political considerations have resulted in a cover-up, this article looks at how the perception of the response and debate will be considered by AQ, its franchises and others that are inspired by its ideology.

The issues concerning the US Administration response to the attack falls into two main areas: the reported "narrative" and the lack of a military response.  Both these key issues cannot, however, be viewed in isolation from other Administration policy.

• It seems that, for political reasons, the Obama Administration has decided that ongoing Overseas Contingency Operations against AQ and the death of Bin Laden has reduced the threat significantly and that AQ is close to defeat.  This will allow the President at the end of his current term to declare victory as part of his legacy.  Fortunately, the narrative is flexible depending on how AQ, "Jihadism", threat etc are defined.  But, it is leading the Administration into bizarre contortions of definition about what is or not a terrorist attack (eg the Ft Hood shootings by Maj Hasan Nidal being described as workplace violence) or even whether AQ still exists in certain areas (ISAF this year has been avoiding using the term AQ in describing the targets of operations to evade awkward questions that could be inconvienient in the lead-up to withdrawal next year.  Core AQ, its franchises and inspired followers will draw the perception of weakness from these circumstances.
• The lack of any military response, may have led to the second attack, and the current debate and the US stating that they did not have assets to use for an intervention will be noted for those planning future attacks.  The planned military withdrawal from Afghanistan and the lack of action in Syria will reinforce "Jihadist" perception that the "West" will eventually lose the will to fight and withdraw, such as Somalia, Lebanon, Iraq and the Soviets from Afghanistan.

In summary, the lack of response and the current debate will reinforce "jihadist" perception that the "West's leaders" and their short-term political agenda, reliant on public opinion, will never be able to counter their generational ideological struggle.  This can only lead to more attacks in the future.