Saturday, January 31, 2015

A battle ahead for an AUMF against ISIL?

On 20 January 2015, in his 2015 State of the Union address, President Obama said “And tonight, I call on Congress to show the world that we are united in this mission by passing a resolution to authorize the use of force against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).”  Previously, the White House has argued that it already has the necessary authority from the 2001 Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) passed by Congress on 14 September 2001 and signed into law by President Bush on 18 September 2001.

However, the 2001 AUMF states "That the President is authorized to use all necessary and appropriate force against those nations, organizations, or persons he determines planned, authorized, committed, or aided the terrorist attacks that occurred on September 11, 2001, or harbored such organizations or persons in order to prevent any future act of international terrorism against the United States by such nations, organizations, or persons."  It therefore authorizes military action against Al Qaida (AQ), the Taliiban and others associated with the 11 September 2001 attacks against the US.  As ISIL did not exist in 2001, and is not associated with Core AQ as one of the AQ franchises, it is dubious whether the 2001 AUMF does cover military action against ISIL.

In an interview with Gen Dempsey (CJCS) on 22 January 2015, he endorsed the passing of a new AUMF, but made three important points:
  • "I think in the drafting of the AUMF, all options should be on the table, and then we can debate whether we want to use them.  But the authorization should be there."
  • "It shouldn't constrain activities geographically, because ISIL knows no boundaries [and] doesn't recognize any boundaries - in fact it's their intention to erase all boundaries to their benefit."
  • "Constraints on time, or a "sunset clause", I just don't think it's necessary.  I think the nation should speak of its intent to confront this radical, ideological, barbaric group and leave that open until we can deal with it."
On 28 January 2015, Representative Adam Schiff (D-CA), the Ranking Member on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, introduced a draft AUMF.  It includes the following text:
  •  Section 2 (b) – The authority granted in in subsection (a) shall be confined to the territory of the Republic of Iraq and the Syrian Arab Republic.  The limitation of this subsection shall not apply to the Armed Forces of the United States engaged in training of indigenous Syrian and regional military forces for the purpose of combating ISIL.
  •  Section 2 (c) – No Authorization For Use Of Ground Forces In Combat – The authority granted in subsection (a) does not include the authority for the deployment of ground forces in a combat role.  For the purposes of this subsection, “ground forces in a combat role” does not include special operations forces or other forces that may be deployed in a training, advisory. Or intelligence role.
  • ·Section 2 (d) – Termination –The authority granted in subsection (a) shall terminate on the date that is three years after the date of the enactment of this joint resolution.
While the draft AUMF has yet to be debated, a battle over its provisions will not show the world that the US is united and will dismay US allies currently engaged in the Coalition against ISIL.

Monday, January 26, 2015

US Airline Threats - Jan 2015

In the last 10 days, numerous security alerts have been declared concerning US airlines.  The number of security alerts in such a short period is unusual.  The FBI is investigating.
  • Sat Jan 17 - A Delta flight, DL1803, from Atlanta International Airport, GE to Raleigh-Durham International Airport, NC was searched on arrival due to a bomb-threat issued on Twitter. Nothing was found.
  • Mon Jan 19 - Following a telephoned bomb-threat (saying a pipe-bomb was on board Delta flight DL468) two aircraft were searched at JFK International Airport, NY.  Delta had two flights (using different aircraft) identified as DL468.  The call was received while DL468 from San Francisco, CA to JFK was en-route.  It was searched on arrival at JFK and nothing was found.  DL468 from JFK to Tel Aviv, Israel had boarding halted and was searched.  Again nothing was found.
  • Sat Jan 24 - Following bomb-threats posted on Twitter, two aircraft were escorted by South Carolina National Guard F-16s to their destination of Hartfield-Jackson International Airport, Atlanta, GE.  One was a Delta flight, DL1156, from Portland, OR and the second was a SouthWest Airlines flight, SWA2492, from Milwaukee, WI.  Both were searched and nothing was found.  The Twitter account was identified as @KingZortic.  During the exchange on Twitter the poster stated he had done it "for Lulz" (personal comic satisfaction).
  • Sun Jan 25 - Following a bomb-threat posted on Twitter, two aircraft were searched on arrival at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, WA.  Jet Blue 1006 was from Long Beach, CA.  The SkyWest flight was from Phoenix, AZ.  Nothing was found.
  • Sun Jan 25 - Following a bomb-threat posted on Twitter, a Delta flight, DL1061, from Los Angeles, CA to Orlando, FL was diverted to Dallas TX and searched.  Nothing was found and the flight continued to Orlando.  The Twitter account was identified as Junaid Hussain @AllahAkhbar911 and claimed allegiance to ISIS.
Last month, Al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsular (AQAP) posted Issue 13 of their English-language Inspire magazine.  It featured an aircraft on the cover and provided advice on how to build an improvised-explosive device (IED) to attack an aircraft.  It identified US airlines as indirect economic targets.  

While much more information is required to make an initial assessment, from the hypotheses available, the incidents, despite the inconvenience, have not created a climate of fear among the US travelling public.