On
10 October 2018, FBI Director Christopher Wray testified before the Senate
Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on “Threats to the
Homeland”. The following is an edited
extract from the testimony concerning UAS:
“The threat from UAS in
the US is steadily escalating.” “The FBI
assesses that…UAS will be used to facilitate an attack in the US against a
vulnerable target, such as a mass-gathering.
This risk has only increased in light of the publicity associated with
the apparent attempted assassination of Venezuelan President Maduro using
explosives-laden UAS.”
Some
of the subsequent media reporting of this testimony assumes that such attacks
are reasonably easy. This may stem from
the number of UAS in commercial use (package deliveries, event filming,
geospatial surveillance, pipeline integrity etc) is rapidly expanding. However, there are many factors that need to
be accounted for before UAS can be used in a successful attack.
·
The example of an attack against a mass-gathering
would need to take into account such factors as: the weather, environmental
conditions, the payload in relation to the density of people at the target, whether
navigational line-of-sight is required or is the mass-gathering defined in time
and space. It should also be noted that
most media reporting considered a mass-gathering as an event (sporting event
etc), but the daily rush-hour at a transit-hub or a regular meeting of a large
number of people are also mass-gatherings.
In the case of a mass-gathering, a single UAS may not achieve the
required effect for targeting or payload.
·
Discussion has also focussed on chemical or
biological attack against a mass-gathering.
In addition to the factors previously mentioned, effective dispersion of
the payload is a challenge. Indeed, creating
the desired effect from aerosol dispersal of many agents, not in a enclosed
space, would be a challenge.
·
The use of UAS for assassination (eg the
alleged attempt on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro at a military parade on
04 August 2018) also face problems. Not
only is some understanding of the event required in advance, navigational
line-of-sight is required to guide the UAS to the target. The other problems of weather, environmental
conditions, and payload also exist. The
growing use of Counter UAS technology will also reduce the likelihood of an
effective attack.
While
the commentary above relate to the use of single or low-multiple UAS, the use
of a swarm of UAS may overcome some attack limitations but also raise a different
scale of challenge. Indeed, the attacker
would have to purchase, modify and store x number of UAS, train for the attack,
synchronise the swarm during execution and accept a loss of surprise (even
though the precise target may not be known).
While
terrorist (or criminal) use of UAS for an attack is a growing concern, the
mounting of a successful attack faces considerable issues.
