UK: MILITARY SUPPORT TO UKRAINE

On 13 October, 2022, the day of a NATO Defense Ministers meeting that included 50 Ukraine supporting nations in Brussels, the UK Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace, announced further UK military support for Ukraine.  In response to the recent Russian missile bombardment of Ukrainian civilian targets, the package included:

• an unspecified number of AIM-120 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM) to used with the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) supplied by the US (see photo above), 
• hundreds of other AD missiles (unspecified), and 
• 18 x howitzer artillery guns.

So far, the UK is the 2nd largest contributor and is assessed to have supplied Ukraine:

• 6 x M270 Multiple Rocket Launch Systems (MRLS),
• >28 x M109 155mm Self-Propelled Howitzers,
• 36 x L119 105mm artillery and ammunition,
• 100,000 rounds of artillery ammunition,
• >10,000 anti-tank missiles, including: NLAW, Javelin and Brimstone.
• 6 x Stormer vehicles fitted for Starstreak Surface-to-Air missiles with hundreds of missiles,
• 2,600 anti-structure munitions,
• >2,000 Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), including the Black Hornet UAS,
• 6 x Remus 100 autonomous underwater mine-hunting systems,
• Counter-battery radar,
• Communications equipment,
• Electronic Warfare equipment,
• 3,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition,
• 4.5 tonnes of plastic explosive,
• >5,000 x night-vision devices,
• 200 x armored vehicles,
• 120 x logistic vehicles,
• Medical supplies,
• 82,000 helmets,
• 8,450 sets of body armor, and
• 20,000 sets of winter clothing.

While the UK has mentioned supplying Ukraine until at least 2024 if required, the recent economic situation of the UK has deteriorated significantly! 

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CONCERN WITH US STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was created in 1975 following the Arab oil embargo of 1973-74 to reduce the effects of supply disruption.  The SPR is administered by the Department of Energy.  It is the largest emergency supply in the world with a capacity for 714 million barrels.  The SPR is crude, not refined product, but the facilities in Texas and Louisiana are located near the major petrochemical and refining processing sites.  With the current policy of reduction in US self-produced energy, the SPR has again increased in importance.

The SPR has been used as resource to counter current increases to the US cost of fuel due to inflation, to limited effect.  Quantities have been sold overseas to US allies in Europe, but also to China!  The Wall Street Journal reported that, "The SPR declined by nearly 7 million barrels in the week ended September 16, leaving it at roughly 427 million barrels - the lowest since 1984.  For the first time since 1983, the SPR now holds less than commercial storage."  

Yesterday, four weeks before the US mid-term elections, in a rebuff to President Biden's wishes, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus (OPEC including non-member allies) (OPEC+) decided to reduce global production by 2 million bpd.  This will cause a global increase in price.  OPEC+ said the decision was based on "uncertainty that surrounds the global economic and oil market outlooks."  Biden quickly followed this decision with an announcement that he was authorizing a further release of 10 million barrels from the SPR.

Current, and potential international issues, pose threats of oil-shock including supply disruption, demand and higher prices.  Factors include: an increase in intensity and/or geographic spread of the conflict in Ukraine caused by Russia, conflict arising from the Iran nuclear issue, conflict caused by China invading Taiwan etc,  Indeed, this could self-exacerbated by the US imposing sanctions on any of the parties involved above.

The SPR is also important in respect of a US national emergency caused by natural disaster.

Despite current "green" policies, if the SPR is not quickly replenished and maintained it is a serious national security and economic error for the US.

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US MILITARY SUPPORT TO UKRAINE

 

Today, October 04, 2022, the White House announced that President Biden, during a phone call with President Zelenskyy, had promised a further military aid package using Presidential Drawdown Authority of c$625 million.

The package comprises:

• 4 x M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) with ammuniton,
• 16 x 155mm howitzers,
• 75,000 x 155mm artillery rounds,
• 500 x precision-guided 155mm rounds,
• 1,000 x 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) systems,
• 16 x 105mm howitzers (likely M119),
• 30,000 x 120mm mortar rounds,
• 200 x MaxxPro Mine-Resistant, Ambush-Protected (MRAP),
• 200,000 x small arms ammunition,
• Obstacle Emplacement Equipment, and
• Claymore Anti-Personnel Munitions.

The current total of military equipment provision can be seen here.

The HIMARS is a wheeled vehicle that fires GPS-guided missiles from pre-loaded pods of 6 missiles for rapid re-load.  Its accuracy and speed of movement is providing a superior artillery advantage.  The UK has provided 6 x M270 Multiple Rocket Launcher System (MRLS), a tracked version of the HIMARS carrying two pods that fire the same missiles.  This capability has had a significant effect on Russian forces.

This is the first aid package since the Russian State Duma approved "accession treaties" on October 03, 2022, for the annexation of occupied territory in the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.  During the call, Biden also told Zelenskyy that the US will never recognize Russia's annexation of occupied territory.  The US prohibition on using US-supplied weapons against Russian targets on Russian territory, does not apply to these territories.

It is not reported whether the call included discussion of Zelenskyy's requests for, accelerated accession to NATO membership or the offer, to the US, of full visibility of Ukrainian targeting, with veto power, if the US supplies the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS).  The provision of ATACMS would be significant capability increase, with a range of 300km compared to the Guided Mutiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) with a range of 70km.  The ATACMS can be fired from the M-142 HIMARS or the M-270 MRLS.

Today's announcement is an overt message to Russian President Putin of the long-term nature of support to Ukraine. 

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