UK: MILITARY SUPPORT TO UKRAINE

On 13 October, 2022, the day of a NATO Defense Ministers meeting that included 50 Ukraine supporting nations in Brussels, the UK Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace, announced further UK military support for Ukraine.  In response to the recent Russian missile bombardment of Ukrainian civilian targets, the package included:

• an unspecified number of AIM-120 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM) to used with the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) supplied by the US (see photo above), 
• hundreds of other AD missiles (unspecified), and 
• 18 x howitzer artillery guns.

So far, the UK is the 2nd largest contributor and is assessed to have supplied Ukraine:

• 6 x M270 Multiple Rocket Launch Systems (MRLS),
• >28 x M109 155mm Self-Propelled Howitzers,
• 36 x L119 105mm artillery and ammunition,
• 100,000 rounds of artillery ammunition,
• >10,000 anti-tank missiles, including: NLAW, Javelin and Brimstone.
• 6 x Stormer vehicles fitted for Starstreak Surface-to-Air missiles with hundreds of missiles,
• 2,600 anti-structure munitions,
• >2,000 Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), including the Black Hornet UAS,
• 6 x Remus 100 autonomous underwater mine-hunting systems,
• Counter-battery radar,
• Communications equipment,
• Electronic Warfare equipment,
• 3,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition,
• 4.5 tonnes of plastic explosive,
• >5,000 x night-vision devices,
• 200 x armored vehicles,
• 120 x logistic vehicles,
• Medical supplies,
• 82,000 helmets,
• 8,450 sets of body armor, and
• 20,000 sets of winter clothing.

While the UK has mentioned supplying Ukraine until at least 2024 if required, the recent economic situation of the UK has deteriorated significantly! 

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CONCERN WITH US STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was created in 1975 following the Arab oil embargo of 1973-74 to reduce the effects of supply disruption.  The SPR is administered by the Department of Energy.  It is the largest emergency supply in the world with a capacity for 714 million barrels.  The SPR is crude, not refined product, but the facilities in Texas and Louisiana are located near the major petrochemical and refining processing sites.  With the current policy of reduction in US self-produced energy, the SPR has again increased in importance.

The SPR has been used as resource to counter current increases to the US cost of fuel due to inflation, to limited effect.  Quantities have been sold overseas to US allies in Europe, but also to China!  The Wall Street Journal reported that, "The SPR declined by nearly 7 million barrels in the week ended September 16, leaving it at roughly 427 million barrels - the lowest since 1984.  For the first time since 1983, the SPR now holds less than commercial storage."  

Yesterday, four weeks before the US mid-term elections, in a rebuff to President Biden's wishes, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus (OPEC including non-member allies) (OPEC+) decided to reduce global production by 2 million bpd.  This will cause a global increase in price.  OPEC+ said the decision was based on "uncertainty that surrounds the global economic and oil market outlooks."  Biden quickly followed this decision with an announcement that he was authorizing a further release of 10 million barrels from the SPR.

Current, and potential international issues, pose threats of oil-shock including supply disruption, demand and higher prices.  Factors include: an increase in intensity and/or geographic spread of the conflict in Ukraine caused by Russia, conflict arising from the Iran nuclear issue, conflict caused by China invading Taiwan etc,  Indeed, this could self-exacerbated by the US imposing sanctions on any of the parties involved above.

The SPR is also important in respect of a US national emergency caused by natural disaster.

Despite current "green" policies, if the SPR is not quickly replenished and maintained it is a serious national security and economic error for the US.

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US MILITARY SUPPORT TO UKRAINE

 

Today, October 04, 2022, the White House announced that President Biden, during a phone call with President Zelenskyy, had promised a further military aid package using Presidential Drawdown Authority of c$625 million.

The package comprises:

• 4 x M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) with ammuniton,
• 16 x 155mm howitzers,
• 75,000 x 155mm artillery rounds,
• 500 x precision-guided 155mm rounds,
• 1,000 x 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) systems,
• 16 x 105mm howitzers (likely M119),
• 30,000 x 120mm mortar rounds,
• 200 x MaxxPro Mine-Resistant, Ambush-Protected (MRAP),
• 200,000 x small arms ammunition,
• Obstacle Emplacement Equipment, and
• Claymore Anti-Personnel Munitions.

The current total of military equipment provision can be seen here.

The HIMARS is a wheeled vehicle that fires GPS-guided missiles from pre-loaded pods of 6 missiles for rapid re-load.  Its accuracy and speed of movement is providing a superior artillery advantage.  The UK has provided 6 x M270 Multiple Rocket Launcher System (MRLS), a tracked version of the HIMARS carrying two pods that fire the same missiles.  This capability has had a significant effect on Russian forces.

This is the first aid package since the Russian State Duma approved "accession treaties" on October 03, 2022, for the annexation of occupied territory in the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.  During the call, Biden also told Zelenskyy that the US will never recognize Russia's annexation of occupied territory.  The US prohibition on using US-supplied weapons against Russian targets on Russian territory, does not apply to these territories.

It is not reported whether the call included discussion of Zelenskyy's requests for, accelerated accession to NATO membership or the offer, to the US, of full visibility of Ukrainian targeting, with veto power, if the US supplies the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS).  The provision of ATACMS would be significant capability increase, with a range of 300km compared to the Guided Mutiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) with a range of 70km.  The ATACMS can be fired from the M-142 HIMARS or the M-270 MRLS.

Today's announcement is an overt message to Russian President Putin of the long-term nature of support to Ukraine. 

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FURTHER MILITARY SUPPORT TO UKRAINE

Today, September 28, 2022, the DoD announced a commitment of $1.1bn under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI).  Under USAI, this has no immediate effect but starts a contract process with industry.     

The most significant capability on the list is provision of a further 18 M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) to the 16 already provided.  HIMARS is a wheeled vehicle that fires GPS-guided missles from pre-loaded pods of 6 missiles for rapid re-load.  The speed and accuracy has caused the Russians major problems.  The UK has provided six M270, a tracked version of the HIMARS carrying two pods that fire the same missiles.

The announcement was coincident with the opening of a meeting of "senior armaments directors" from the member nations of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group.  The group, chaired by US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, was meeting in Brussels to discuss increased production to meet or offset Ukraine's needs.

The discussions in Congress this week over provision of funding for the US Government, includes a broad Ukraine aid package of $12.3bn.  The package comprises $7.5bn in military assistance and $4.5bn in economic/humanitarian support.

Today's announcement and meeting, and the probable further provision of funds by Congress, are overt messages to Russian President Putin of the long-term nature of support to Ukraine. 

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PUTIN: DESPERATION IN UKRAINE?

Russian President, Vladimir Putin, has been ceding ground in a self-initiated military conflict with Ukraine that is becoming increasing unpopular at home.  Provision of new military capabilities, and the supply of arms and ammunition by supporting countries, has given Ukraine the capacity to fight.  Attrition of both personnel and equipment has impacted Russian ability to retain early gains and has undermined their ability to achieve campaign objectives.

With suspicious timing, on September 20, 2022, pro-Russian officials in four regions: the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) and the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions (see map) asked for referendums to join Russia.  Although Russia does not totally control any of the four regions the votes will take place between September 23 and September 27.  While the international community view these referendums as illegal, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, said the respective territories should decide their own fate.  On the same day, the Russian Duma passed a bill required by Putin that included severe penalties for desertion etc.; though it has yet to pass the Upper House.  And in a televised address last night, Putin tried to justify the measures and announced a partial mobilization.  Later, Defense Minister Shoigu announced this would initially be for 300,000 citizens with previous military experience.

How will these measures affect the conflict?  A formal annexation of the territories by Russia would allow Putin to argue that any attack would be against the Russian homeland and has implied the threat of the use of nuclear weapons.  The mobilization and training of those called-up will take time, and with the onset of winter, the direct military effect may just be a desperate effort by Putin to freeze the front lines.

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US/UKRAINE: MILITARY SUPPORT

Yesterday, September 15, 2022, the US announced the 21st Presidential Drawdown of DoD military equipment.  This follows from that announced on September 08, 2022, (see US/Ukraine: Further Military Support).

This announcement, is valued at $600 mn, and includes:

• Ammunition for the M142 High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS),
• 1,000 x 155mm precision-guided artillery rounds,
• 36,000 x 105mm rounds of ammunition (likely for the M119),
• 4 x Counter-artillery radars,
• Counter-Unmanned Aerial System,
• Mine-clearing equipment, and
• Night vision devices.

A meeting of "senior armaments directors" from the member nations of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group to discuss Ukrainian needs will be chaired by US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, on September 28, 2022 in Brussels to discuss increased production to meet or offset Ukraine's needs.

A summary of US military equipment supplied so far includes:

• >1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems,
• >8,500 Javelin anti-armor systems,
• >32,000 other anti-armor systems,
• >700 Switchblade Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS),
• >126 x 155mm howitzers (M777) and c 806,000 155mm artillery rounds,
• 2,000 x precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds,
• 20 x 105mm howitzers (M119) and 180,000 105mm artillery rounds,
• 16 x M142 High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and ammunition,
• 20 x 120mm mortar systems and 85,000 mortar rounds,
• 1,500 x Tube-launched, Optically-tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) missiles,
• 8 x National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and missiles,
• High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM),
• 20 x Mi-17 helicopters
• Hundreds of armored High-Mobility, Multi-Purpose, Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs),
• 200 x M113 Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs),
• 40 x MaxxPro Mine-Resistant, Ambush-Protected (MRAP) vehicles with mine-rollers,
• Mine-clearing equipment and systems,
• >10,000 grenade launchers and small-arms,
• >60,000,000 rounds of small-arms ammunition,
• >75,000 sets of body-armor and helmets,
• c700 Phoenix Ghost Tactical UAS,
• Puma UAS,
• 15 x Scan Eagle UAS,
• Unmanned coastal defense vehicles,
• >50 x counter-artillery radars,
• 4 x counter-mortar radars
• Counter UAS systems,
• 10 x air surveillance radars,
• 2 x Harpoon coastal defense systems,
• 18 x coastal and riverine patrol boats,
• M18A1 Claymore anti-personnel munitions,
• C-4 explosives, demolition munitions, and demolition equipment for obstacle-clearing,
• Tactical secure communications,
• Night-vision devices, thermal-imagery systems, optics, and laser range-finders,
• Commercial satellite imagery services,
• Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) protective gear,
• Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) protective equipment,
• 100 x armored medical treatment vehicles and medical supplies, and
• Electronic jamming equipment.

The announcement will replenish stocks depleted by Ukraine in their latest activities.  Recent Ukrainian activity has, not only constrained Russian campaign objectives in the south and the Donetsk Oblast but has seen significant territorial gains near Kharkiv and smaller successes on the diversionary front near Kherson.  If the type of military activity continues, Russia will not be able to sustain their forces as rapidly as Ukraine, likely leading to further losses.

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US/UKRAINE: FURTHER MILITARY SUPPORT

Yesterday, September 08, 2022, the US announced two further military aid packages for Ukraine.  These are in addition to that announced on August 24, 2022, (see Ukraine: Will Attrition Stop Putin?).

The announcement, by Secretary of Defense Austin, is of a further drawdown from US military stock, valued at $675 mn, and includes:

• Ammunition for M142 High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS),
• 1,000 x 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine Systems (RAAMS),
• 4 x 105mm howitzers (likely the M119) with 36,000 rounds of ammunition,
• Additional High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM),
• 100 x armored High-Mobility Multi-Purpose Wheeled Vehicle (HMMWV),
• 1,500,000 rounds of small arms ammunition,
• >5,000 anti-armor systems,
• Additional grenade launchers and small arms,
• 50 x armored medical treatment vehicles, and
• Night vision devices.

Austin also announced that he will host a meeting of "senior armaments directors" from member nations of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group to discuss Ukrainian needs.

Yesterday, Secretary of State Blinken, announced $2.2 bn of Foreign Military Financing, that will consist of $1bn for Ukraine and $1.2 bn to be shared between: Albania, Bosnia-Hercegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.  Foreign Military Financing is administered by the State Dept and is provided to recipients to buy US-made defense equipment.  In this case, the State Dept statement said that it should be used to "deter and defend against emergent threats to their sovereignty and territorial integrity, increase professionalism and modernization of their security forces, enhance partner integration with NATO, and strengthen defensive cyber, hybrid warfare, and conventional capabilities to counter Russian influence and aggression.

The Blinken announcement signals to Putin that Ukraine has international-backing for an extended conflict that is severely impacting Russians resources.  Ukrainian activity has so far constrained Russian campaign objectives in the south and the Donetsk Oblast.  Current activity has seen Ukraine having territorial success near Kherson and Kharkiv.  

*** For your kind consideration, I would appreciate any support with my cancer expenses: https://gofund.me/e5992c63.