Russian President, Vladimir Putin, has been ceding ground in a self-initiated military conflict with Ukraine that is becoming increasing unpopular at home. Provision of new military capabilities, and the supply of arms and ammunition by supporting countries, has given Ukraine the capacity to fight. Attrition of both personnel and equipment has impacted Russian ability to retain early gains and has undermined their ability to achieve campaign objectives.
With suspicious timing, on September 20, 2022, pro-Russian officials in four regions: the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) and the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions (see map) asked for referendums to join Russia. Although Russia does not totally control any of the four regions the votes will take place between September 23 and September 27. While the international community view these referendums as illegal, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, said the respective territories should decide their own fate. On the same day, the Russian Duma passed a bill required by Putin that included severe penalties for desertion etc.; though it has yet to pass the Upper House. And in a televised address last night, Putin tried to justify the measures and announced a partial mobilization. Later, Defense Minister Shoigu announced this would initially be for 300,000 citizens with previous military experience.
How will these measures affect the conflict? A formal annexation of the territories by Russia would allow Putin to argue that any attack would be against the Russian homeland and has implied the threat of the use of nuclear weapons. The mobilization and training of those called-up will take time, and with the onset of winter, the direct military effect may just be a desperate effort by Putin to freeze the front lines.
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