Today, August 24, 2022, Ukraine should be celebrating its 1991 declaration as an independent nation, however it is also the six-month anniversary of Russia's second invasion of the country (Russia invaded Crimea in 2014).
Yesterday, on a virtual forum of world leaders that included forty presidents or prime ministers, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said "It all began in Crimea and it will end in Crimea" and "It is necessary to liberate Crimea. This will be the resusitation of world law and order." UK PM Boris Johnson, was in Kyiv and reiterated long-term UK support. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg also pledged support in this "grinding war of attrition" and that "This is a battle of the wills and a battle of logistics."
This month, the US has already announced considerable military aid to Ukraine (see articles of August 19, 2022 and August 8, 2022). However, on August 24, 2022, the US also announced $2.98Bn military aid package. This is a longer-term security package under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, with the Ukraine purchasing the items unlike previous packages that were drawn from US stock. The package includes money for:
- Puma and Scan Eagle UAS,
- the Vampire anti-UAS system,
- six NASAMS air defense systems,
- 24 counter-artillery radars,
- precision artillery systems, and
- >300,000 rounds of artillery and mortar ammunition.
The UK also announced a further $63.5Mn package including 850 Black Hornet UAS and 1,000 anti-tank loitering munitions. The Black Hornet is a micro-UAS, designed for urban use, that provides a live video feed. This package is in addition to an earlier $307Mn August provision of three M270 MRLS with M31A1 precision missiles. Other nations also announced packages of military assistance.
Today's US announcement, and the comments yesterday, were public messages to many audiences, but will have been mainly targeted at Putin in that Ukraine has international-backing for extended conflict that will severely impact Russians resources. An emerging new feature of war is Ukraine initiating campaign offensive actions. Ukrainian effort in the south has been to constrain the Black Sea Fleet in coastal defense and push Russian forces back from Kherson. This effort has included operations in Crimea. This counters one of the main Russian objectives of Odessa and control of the coast. In the Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian effort has been to recapture territory. This hampers a main Russian objective of control of the Oblast and their wish to hold a referendum. These Ukrainian efforts included behind-the-lines activities such as: car bombs, targeted killings and sabotage. Attacks have also included ammunition facilities and bridges to deny resupply. With concern for rear-area security, resupply and constant attrition, the original Russian planning assumptions have changed considerably. Among many economic problems, Russia has been projected to lose 6% of GDP in 2022.
Will attrition stop Putin prosecuting a conflict that Ukraine can extend in time? How will his strategy change?
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