CHINA/TAIWAN: UPDATE

  

Since the last update, Xi and Taiwan: Update of August 15, 2022, a number of significant issues should be noted:

• Politically, the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been scheduled to begin on October 16, 2022. 
• On August 28, 2022, the USS Chancellorsville and USS Antietam conducted the first transit of the Taiwan Straits since Pelosi's visit.  Whilst being met with the usual Chinese rhetoric, the event passed normally.
• Economically, China is still experiencing significant troubles with its economy.  Indeed, Morgan Stanley have just stated that unless the Chinese authorities provide sufficient support to the real estate sector it could further damage the economy and stock market.  The Shanghai Composite is down 12% so far this year.
• On August 31, 2022, the UN Office of the High Commissioner on Human Rights published a report that concluded that China had committed "serious human rights violations" in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.
• Also on August 31, 2022, a revised defence budget, raised by 14% to $19.41 bn, submitted by the Ministry of National Defence (MND) to parliament included further purchases to:
• 29 x M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)
• 84 x MGM-140 ATACMS missiles
• 864 x "precision rockets" for HIMARS (presumably GMRLS)
• On September 01, 2022, Russia and China begun the Vostok 22 strategic military exercise.  Despite initial planning, Russian participation will severely-reduced due to deployments to Ukraine.
• Also on September 01, 2022, President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan met with Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona.  The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the largest contract chip-maker and a major Apple supplier is constructing a$12 billion manufacturing plant in Arizona.  Taiwan also has a link with Arizona as its F-16 pilots are trained at Luke AFB.
• Following some Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) incidents, Maj Gen Lin Wen-huang of the Taiwan MND, said on August 31, 2022, that Taiwan would counterattack if China challenges the sovereignty of Taiwan.  A UAS, described by China as civilian, was indeed shot-down on September 01, 2022.
• On September 02, 2022, the MND, in a report to Taiwan's parliament, said that China continued to: prepare to attack Taiwan, had been simulating attacks against the US Navy and to block foreign reinforcement.
• Also on September 02, 2022, the Biden Administration announced $1.9 bn of arms sales to Taiwan.  The package includes:
• $655 mn of support to Taiwan's surveillance radar system for AD warning
• $355 mn for Harpoon air-sea missiles
• $85 mn for Sidewinder air-air missiles

The state of the economy and issues around COVID-19 have reflected badly on Xi.  However, it remains highly-likely that Xi will be successful in an unprecedented re-election to a third term as Chairman. 

For your kind consideration, I would appreciate any support with my cancer expenses: https://gofund.me/e5992c63.