On 22/04/2013, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) arrested Chibeb Esseghaier and Raed Jaser, two foreign national students in Canada. A tip-off from an Imam in late-2011, concerned about the spread of the spread of extremist media, led to the opening of an investigation, Project SMOOTH, by the Canadian authoritiesin Aug 2012. Subsequently, the Canadians involved the US authorities. The plot involved an attack on a rail bridge, while Via Rail train would be crossing it, on the Toronto – New York route (AMTRAK is responsible for the US part of the route). The RCMP described the plotters as receiving direction and guidance from AQ elements in Iran, but that Iran was not involved.
Following the start of the US-led Coalition action in Afghanistan in Oct 2001, members of the senior AQ leadership withdrew. Some, such as UBL and Ayman al-Zawahiri moved to the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan while others moved to Iran. Senior AQ leaders such as Abu Muhammed al-Masri, Yasin al-Suri, Sulayman Abu Ghaith, and Abu Hafs al-Mauritania, in early 2002, reportedly formed the “AQ Management Council” after having settled in Iran. It appears that the Iranian regime and AQ came to an agreement that AQ could have sanctuary if they ceased from conducting operations and recruiting in Iran and inform the authorities of their activity. Whilst a further member of the AQ Management Council, Saif al-Adel, is reported to have provided support to those who conducted the May 2003 Riyadh Western housing compound attacks, it seems that AQ did limit their activity in Iran to transit and facilitation.
As the investigation continues, and details become public, it will be of considerable interest to those who follow AQ to know about the:
Perpetrators: one had been in Canada 10 yrs the other 5 yrs – were they radicalized before entering Canada? Were they “sleepers”? Where were they radicalized in Canada? Who were they in contact with in Canada? Who were they in contact with in Iran and how? Did they have any contacts elsewhere? Had they made any travel outside of Canada?
Why Canada: why did AQ choose Canada – thought to be easier operating environment? Less chance of a strong response? An attack on the US would complicate geopolitics for their hosts over other issues (nuclear etc)?
Why an AQ attack from Iran now: regain the responsibility of being the “Vanguard” against the “Far Enemy”? Success breeds success – new recruits from the “Arab Spring” Zawahiri not fulfilling mantle of UBL’s successor?
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