North Korea: A “real” Crisis

The recent threats made by North Korean leader, Kim Jong Un, including a nuclear strike against the US, has prompted intensive, high-level diplomacy and even military deployments. However, given the history of the North Korean dynastic leadership, is it a “real” crisis?

Since the creation of the north Korean state, its first leader and Kim Jong Un’s grandfather, Kim Il Sung, have manufactured crises. The US is looked upon as North Korea’s greatest enemy. The current crisis should not be surprise. Kim Jong Un needs to establish himself as leader with: his military and his people, regional leaders (and crises generally occur following a new leader in South Korea) and a major anniversary on 15 April (the birthday of Kim Il Sung).

While North Korea has an active nuclear weapons programme, they have not demonstrated that they have the capability to deliver a nuclear warhead by ballistic missile. The desire for North Korea to achieve a nuclear weapons capability is to deter any external enemy from effecting regime change and a capability to threaten others in order to achieve concessions. Kim Jong Un and his advisers know that use of such a capability would cause the removal of the regime and therefore the threat of use in current circumstances is not deemed credible.

While the US conducted a show of offensive force and has deployed US Navy missile defence assets as a precaution and to reassure local allies, the International Community has generally viewed the “crisis” as a frustrating annoyance rather than a serious threat. Indeed, the International Community ignored the warning to remove diplomatic missions from South Korea. Even China has agreed that they will work with the US to achieve “denuclearisation” of North Korea.

Apart from the movement and preparation for firing of two Musudan ballistic missiles to the coast, no unusual North Korean military or civil defence indicators have been reported. Yet, even if a limited conventional military attack against South Korea were being contemplated, the North Koreans would expect some retaliation.

It assessed that while a missile test firing will probably occur on the 15 April, the rhetoric of Kim Jong Un is just that, rhetoric.