On 3 February 2015, the Islamic State of Iraq and the
Levant (ISIL) released a video showing 1st Lt Moaz al-Kasabeh of the
Royal Jordanian Air Force being burnt to death in a cage. The nature of the death is a change from the
beheadings and firing-squads previously shown in ISIL videos. The video was released during a visit by King
Abdullah of Jordan to Washington DC. In
a statement by the Jordanian military, they stated that they believe Lt
Kasasbeh was killed on 3 January 2015.
Lt al-Kasasbeh was captured by ISIL after his F-16 was
shot-down near Raqqa, Syria on 24 December 2014. Jordan is a member of the anti-ISIL
coalition. ISIL publicly stated that
they would release him if Jordan released Sajida al-Rishawi. She has been on death-row in Jordan since
2005. On the 9 November 2005, 60 were
killed and 115 injured following suicide bombings at the Grand Hyatt Hotel, the
Radisson SAS Hotel and the Days Inn in Amman, Jordan. Al-Rishawi was captured after her suicide
belt failed to detonate at the Radisson SAS – her husband did detonate in the
ballroom that was hosting a Jordanian wedding.
This attack was conducted by Al Qaida in Iraq (AQ-I), headed by
Jordanian Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. AQ-I was
the predecessor of ISIL, though ISIL has been disowned by AQ.
The Lt al-Kasasbeh video, like previous productions was
very professionally-produced. Other ISIL
media product, such as the magazine Dabiq are also very professional. They know how to influence and manipulate an
audience and monitor international news to exploit it for their own ends. For example, ISIL offered to release two
Japanese hostages, Haruna Yukawa and Kenji Goto, for the sum of $200m. The sum of $200m was taken from the figure
that Japanese Prime Minister Abe promised to aid the Iraqi Government and
Syrian refugees.
During January 2015, ISIL were negotiating with the
Jordanians over al-Rishawi, when they knew the exchange could not take place as
they had already killed Lt al-Kasasbeh.
Therefore, ISIL did not care about the prisoner, only the global
publicity they were generating. To add
to this publicity, they were also negotiating with the Japanese over their
hostages. They wished to prolong this
publicity and therefore the video of the beheading Haruna Yukawa was released
on 24 January 2015 showing a live Kenji Goto.
The video of the Goto beheading was released on 31 January 2015.
So, was this January publicity a build-up for a planned release of the Lt
al-Kasasbeh video while King Abdallah was visiting Washington DC? If so, why?
Did ISIL know that the UAE had stopped flying military missions over
Syria following the shoot-down of Lt al-Kasasbeh due to concerns over US Combat
Search and Rescue capabilities being based in Kuwait and not in Iraq, where
they would be closer for CSAR missions in Syria? Were they trying to cause a fracture between
Jordan and the US, knowing the US policy of “no boots on the ground” to defeat
them. Even though King Abdullah has
promised to take the fight to ISIL, the Jordanians will need US support. They also know that the British Prime
Minister has the same “no boots on the ground” policy and no offensive
operations in Syria policy, and is unlikely to change them with an election due
on (or before) May 2015.
Have the events of the past month been an exercise to
further fragment the anti-ISIS coalition?
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