UKRAINE: WILL ATTRITION STOP PUTIN?

Today, August 24, 2022, Ukraine should be celebrating its 1991 declaration as an independent nation, however it is also the six-month anniversary of Russia's second invasion of the country (Russia invaded Crimea in 2014).

Yesterday, on a virtual forum of world leaders that included forty presidents or prime ministers, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said "It all began in Crimea and it will end in Crimea" and "It is necessary to liberate Crimea.  This will be the resusitation of world law and order."  UK PM Boris Johnson, was in Kyiv and reiterated long-term UK support.  NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg also pledged support in this "grinding war of attrition" and that "This is a battle of the wills and a battle of logistics."

This month, the US has already announced considerable military aid to Ukraine (see articles of August 19, 2022 and  August 8, 2022).  However, on August 24, 2022, the US also announced $2.98Bn military aid package.  This is a longer-term security package under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, with the Ukraine purchasing the items unlike previous packages that were drawn from US stock.  The package includes money for:

• Puma and Scan Eagle UAS,
• the Vampire anti-UAS system,
• six NASAMS air defense systems,
• 24 counter-artillery radars,
• precision artillery systems, and
• >300,000 rounds of artillery and mortar ammunition.

The UK also announced a further $63.5Mn package including 850 Black Hornet UAS and 1,000 anti-tank loitering munitions.  The Black Hornet is a micro-UAS, designed for urban use, that provides a live video feed.  This package is in addition to an earlier $307Mn August provision of three M270 MRLS with M31A1 precision missiles.  Other nations also announced packages of military assistance.

Today's US announcement, and the comments yesterday, were public messages to many audiences, but will have been mainly targeted at Putin in that Ukraine has international-backing for extended conflict that will severely impact Russians resources.  An emerging new feature of war is Ukraine initiating campaign offensive actions.  Ukrainian effort in the south has been to constrain the Black Sea Fleet in coastal defense and push Russian forces back from Kherson.  This effort has included operations in Crimea.  This counters one of the main Russian objectives of Odessa and control of the coast.  In the Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian effort has been to recapture territory.  This hampers a main Russian objective of control of the Oblast and their wish to hold a referendum.  These Ukrainian efforts included behind-the-lines activities such as: car bombs, targeted killings and sabotage.  Attacks have also included ammunition facilities and bridges to deny resupply.  With concern for rear-area security, resupply and constant attrition, the original Russian planning assumptions have changed considerably.  Among many economic problems, Russia has been projected to lose 6% of GDP in 2022.

Will attrition stop Putin prosecuting a conflict that Ukraine can extend in time?  How will his strategy change?

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US MILITARY SUPPORT TO UKRAINE

On Friday, August 19, 2022, a senior defense official briefed on a further tranche of US military assistance to Ukraine.  The c$775 Mn "what they need, when they need it" package follows the c$1 Bn package announced on August 08,2022.  This raises the amount of security assistance committed by the Biden Administration to c$10.5 Bn since the Russian invasion 0n February 24, 2022.  

The package includes:

• More ammunition for HIMARS,
• 16 x 105mm howitzers and 36,000 rounds,
• 15 x Scan Eagle UAS,
• 40 x MRAP vehicles and add
• Additional HARM missiles for Ukrainian aircraft, and
• Additional anti-armor missiles.

The supply and signifigance of the M142 High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) to Ukraine was noted on August 8, 2022.  However, this is the first US provision of M119 105mm Howitzers, although it has been providing ammunition for the 36 x L119 105mm Howitzers provided by the UK.  The Scan Eagle will assist in rapid, accurate target acquisition.

Also, on August 19, 2022, Ukraine's Defense Minister Reznikov stated that it had been agreed with the US not to use "western" weapons on the Russian territory, but there would be no restrictions in Crimea, Donbass or other territory not now controlled by Kyiv.  An emerging new feature of war is Ukraine initiating campaign offensive actions.  Ukrainian effort in the south has been to constrain the Black Sea Fleet in coastal defense and push Russian forces back from Kherson.  This effort has included operations in Crimea.  This counters one of the main Russian objectives of Odessa and control of the coast.  In the Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian effort has been to recapture territory.  This hampers a main Russian objective of control of the Oblast and their wish to hold a referendum.  These Ukrainian efforts included behind-the-lines activities such as: car bombs, targeted killings and sabotage.  Attacks have also included ammunition facilities and bridges to deny resupply.  With concern for rear-area security, resupply and constant attrition, the original Russian planning assumptions have changed considerably.

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Xi and Taiwan: Update

 

Following the August 2, 2022, visit to Taiwan by US Speaker Pelosi, a US Congressional Delegation arrived for a two-day visit on August 14, 2022.  Led by Sen Markey (D), it included Reps. Garamendi, Lowenthal and Beyer (D) and Radewagen (R).  Their meetings, including with Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen, discussed: regional security, trade, investment and US/Taiwan relations.

China reacted to Pelosi's visit with strong rhetoric, diplomatic measures including cancellation of: phone calls, senior military meetings, combatting transnational crime and suspension of climate change talks, and also with military exercises including: a partial naval blockade, air incursions, live missile firings, artillery firings etc.  The diplomatic measures remain in place and the military exercises (due to conclude today), following this visit, are now to be continued.  A Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, said today that "A handful of US politicians, in collusion with the separatist forces of Taiwan independence, are trying to challenge the One-China principle, which is out of their depth and doomed to failure.

As discussed in Taiwan: Is 2022 the Crucial Year, China is experiencing significant troubles with COVID and its economy.  This has continued with China's Central Bank cutting rates today after economic activity slowed in July, both in consumer spending and factory output.  This is reflecting badly on Xi.  The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is due to take place (probably in November) where Xi's re-election to Chairman was almost assured.

A military absorption of Taiwan is a CCP objective if it cannot be achieved politically.  Xi views the US as weak, politically-divided, and with a poor economy.  He is also aware of Taiwan, Japan and Australia increasing their military capabilities.

So, how much pressure does Xi feel under?  As raised in, Xi and Taiwan: An Excessive Response, he may have felt that the Pelosi visit was not a one-off visit but part of the political process for Senate Bill S4428 - The Taiwan Policy Act 2022.  This most recent visit has probably reinforced his perception.  The bill is described by its sponsor as "the most comprehensive restructuring of US policy toward Taiwan since the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979".  If passed, the three main provisions pose significant problems for the CCP/Xi:

• Designating Taiwan as a US major non-NATO ally,
• The provision of $4.5bn in security assistance over four years,
• Expansion of Taiwan's diplomatic space through participation in international organisations and multinational trade agreements.

If Xi feels his position is threatened, and the Senate Bill threatens long-term CCP policy, he may feel that he will have to act before the 20th Congress in order to be re-elected.

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FURTHER US SUPPORT TO UKRAINE

A DOD press release of August 8, 2022, announced another Presidential Drawdown of military equipment for Ukraine.  The Presidential Drawdown, the 18th of the Biden Administration, authorizes a withdrawal from US military stock and this is the largest and is valued at c$1 Bn.  This raises the amount of security assistance committed by the Biden Administration to $9.8 Bn so far.  Also, 0n August 8, 2022, the World Bank announced $4.5 Bn for social payments, healthcare services and pensions.  The cost will be met by the US.  Then, on August 9, 2022, the State Department announced they will provide $89 Mn for demining.

One significant system so far shipped to Ukraine is the M142 High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS).  On August 8, 2022, Ukraine's Defense Minister, Oleksii Reznnikov said that the system had been used to destroy more than 50 Russian ammunition depots since deliveries started.  Ukrainian ground commanders have credited the system for stalling the Russian advance on Donbas.  As well as engaging direct threats, the system has been used to target other Russian logistics and to stop massing of infantry.

The HIMARS (see above) is a wheeled vehicle that fires GPS-guided missles from pre-loaded pods of 6 missiles for rapid re-load.  The speed and accuracy is causing the Russians problems in trying to engage the vehicles.  The DoD have said that they will provide a 'steady-stream" of missiles, though no more launch vehicles to add to the 16 provided.  The UK has provided three M270, a tracked version of the HIMARS carrying two pods that fire the same missiles.

For your kind consideration, I would appreciate any support with my cancer expenses: https://gofund.me/e5992c63. 

Xi and Taiwan: An Excessive Response?

Following the August 2, 2022, visit to Taiwan by US Speaker Pelosi, China has reacted with strong rhetoric and military exercises including: naval blockade, air incursions, live missile firings, artillery firings etc.  This has led to airlines having to cancel flights and ships being diverted.

As discussed in my previous article (Taiwan: Is 2022 the Crucial Year), China is experiencing significant troubles with COVID and its economy.  This is reflecting badly on Xi.  The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is due to take place (probably in October or November) where Xi's re-election to Chairman was almost assured.

Previously, US and Taiwanese officials estimated a Chinese invasion between 2025 and 2030, yet recently that changed to within the next 18 months.  A military absorption of Taiwan is a CCP objective if it cannot be achieved politically.  Xi views the US as weak, politically-divided, and with a poor economy.  He is also aware of Taiwan, Japan and Australia increasing their military capabilities.

So, how much pressure does Xi feel under?  Well, he may feel that the Pelosi visit was not a one-off visit but part of the political process for Senate Bill S4428 - The Taiwan Policy Act 2022.  This bi-partisan bill was "read-in" to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on June 16 and had a hearing on August 3.  The bill is described by its sponsor as "the most comprehensive restructuring of US policy toward Taiwan since the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979".  If passed, the three main provisions pose significant problems for the CCP/Xi:

• Designating Taiwan as a US major non-NATO ally,
• The provision of $4.5bn in security assistance over four years,
• Expansion of Taiwan's diplomatic space through participation in international organisations and multinational trade agreements.

If Xi feels his position is threatened, and the Senate Bill threatens long-term CCP policy, he may feel that he will have to act before the 20th Congress in order to be re-elected.

For your kind consideration, I would appreciate any support with my cancer expenses: https://gofund.me/e5992c63. 

URBAN OPERATIONS

 

In July 2022, the Department of the Army and the United States Marine Corps published ATP 3-06/MCTP10B on Urban Operations.  It is a shame that further work could not be completed before publication!

In Paragraph 1-2 it states that "The urban environment comprises three parts: (1) complex manmade physical terrain, (2) population of significant size and density, and (3) supporting infrastructure. JP 3-06 refers to these three parts as the urban triad. Cities are unique for the density of these three features—that density is a key aspect of the inherent complexity of urban operations."

In Paragraph 1-5 it states that "The complex and dynamic interactions and relationships among the key components of people, terrain, and infrastructure create an overlapping and interdependent system of systems that presents unique challenges. A system is a functionally, physically, and/or behaviorally related group of regularly interacting or interdependent elements; that group of elements forming a unified whole (JP 3-0)."  "Understanding the operational variables of political, military, economic, social, information, infrastructure, physical terrain, and time (PMESII-PT) is critical to conducting mission analysis and intelligence preparation of the battlefield/battlespace (IPB) within the military decision-making process (MDMP)/Marine Corps planning process (MCPP) and the operations process, and is critical to establishing and maintaining a common operational picture (COP) in an urban area."  "Civil considerations of areas, structures, capabilities, organizations, people, and events (ASCOPE) significantly affect UO."

However, in Paragraph 1-1 two definitions are given!  "The Army defines urban operations as operations across the range of military operations planned and conducted on, or against, objectives on a topographical complex and its adjacent natural terrain, where manmade construction or the density of population are the dominant features. In the Marine Corps, military operations on urbanized terrain (MOUT) are all military actions that are planned and conducted on a topographical complex and its adjacent natural terrain where manmade construction is the dominant feature. It includes combat in cities, which is that portion of military operations on urbanized terrain involving house-to-house and street-by-street fighting in towns and cities."  So, the USMC definition excludes the density of population and both make no mention of infrastructure!

This is unnecessary and undermines the good work elsewhere in the publication.

For your kind consideration, I would appreciate any support with my cancer expenses: https://gofund.me/e5992c63.