Xi and Taiwan: An Excessive Response?

Following the August 2, 2022, visit to Taiwan by US Speaker Pelosi, China has reacted with strong rhetoric and military exercises including: naval blockade, air incursions, live missile firings, artillery firings etc.  This has led to airlines having to cancel flights and ships being diverted.

As discussed in my previous article (Taiwan: Is 2022 the Crucial Year), China is experiencing significant troubles with COVID and its economy.  This is reflecting badly on Xi.  The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is due to take place (probably in October or November) where Xi's re-election to Chairman was almost assured.

Previously, US and Taiwanese officials estimated a Chinese invasion between 2025 and 2030, yet recently that changed to within the next 18 months.  A military absorption of Taiwan is a CCP objective if it cannot be achieved politically.  Xi views the US as weak, politically-divided, and with a poor economy.  He is also aware of Taiwan, Japan and Australia increasing their military capabilities.

So, how much pressure does Xi feel under?  Well, he may feel that the Pelosi visit was not a one-off visit but part of the political process for Senate Bill S4428 - The Taiwan Policy Act 2022.  This bi-partisan bill was "read-in" to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on June 16 and had a hearing on August 3.  The bill is described by its sponsor as "the most comprehensive restructuring of US policy toward Taiwan since the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979".  If passed, the three main provisions pose significant problems for the CCP/Xi:

• Designating Taiwan as a US major non-NATO ally,
• The provision of $4.5bn in security assistance over four years,
• Expansion of Taiwan's diplomatic space through participation in international organisations and multinational trade agreements.

If Xi feels his position is threatened, and the Senate Bill threatens long-term CCP policy, he may feel that he will have to act before the 20th Congress in order to be re-elected.

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