Xi and Taiwan: Update

 

Following the August 2, 2022, visit to Taiwan by US Speaker Pelosi, a US Congressional Delegation arrived for a two-day visit on August 14, 2022.  Led by Sen Markey (D), it included Reps. Garamendi, Lowenthal and Beyer (D) and Radewagen (R).  Their meetings, including with Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen, discussed: regional security, trade, investment and US/Taiwan relations.

China reacted to Pelosi's visit with strong rhetoric, diplomatic measures including cancellation of: phone calls, senior military meetings, combatting transnational crime and suspension of climate change talks, and also with military exercises including: a partial naval blockade, air incursions, live missile firings, artillery firings etc.  The diplomatic measures remain in place and the military exercises (due to conclude today), following this visit, are now to be continued.  A Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, said today that "A handful of US politicians, in collusion with the separatist forces of Taiwan independence, are trying to challenge the One-China principle, which is out of their depth and doomed to failure.

As discussed in Taiwan: Is 2022 the Crucial Year, China is experiencing significant troubles with COVID and its economy.  This has continued with China's Central Bank cutting rates today after economic activity slowed in July, both in consumer spending and factory output.  This is reflecting badly on Xi.  The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is due to take place (probably in November) where Xi's re-election to Chairman was almost assured.

A military absorption of Taiwan is a CCP objective if it cannot be achieved politically.  Xi views the US as weak, politically-divided, and with a poor economy.  He is also aware of Taiwan, Japan and Australia increasing their military capabilities.

So, how much pressure does Xi feel under?  As raised in, Xi and Taiwan: An Excessive Response, he may have felt that the Pelosi visit was not a one-off visit but part of the political process for Senate Bill S4428 - The Taiwan Policy Act 2022.  This most recent visit has probably reinforced his perception.  The bill is described by its sponsor as "the most comprehensive restructuring of US policy toward Taiwan since the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979".  If passed, the three main provisions pose significant problems for the CCP/Xi:

• Designating Taiwan as a US major non-NATO ally,
• The provision of $4.5bn in security assistance over four years,
• Expansion of Taiwan's diplomatic space through participation in international organisations and multinational trade agreements.

If Xi feels his position is threatened, and the Senate Bill threatens long-term CCP policy, he may feel that he will have to act before the 20th Congress in order to be re-elected.

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