As actors use less traditional actions to
influence the operational environment, the ability to warn of threats is
becoming increasingly complex. This is making the task of the intelligence
community much more difficult in providing warning.
The Operational Environment is: “A composite of
the conditions, circumstances and influences that affect the employment of
military forces and bear on the decisions of commanders.”[i]
Warning[ii] is the result of
specialized intelligence analytical tradecraft, applied to all sources of
information, to provide expert insight in order to prevent or limit damage to
one’s national interests. It is
subdivided into strategic warning (before the hostile act is initiated) and
tactical warning (the hostile act has been initiated). In order that pre-emptive measures can be
taken, it is important that the speed of warning is within the adversary
decision-cycle.
“Gray Zone challenges are defined as
competitive interactions among and within state and non-state actors that fall
between the war and peace duality.”[iii] Therefore, Gray Zone challenges are
activities that occur before initiation of major combat operations.
Some Gray Zone challenges will be calculated,
incremental activity to achieve an objective by each individual action, by
an overt sponsor, and is designed to fall beneath the threshold of acceptable
retaliation, e.g. island building by China in the South China Sea to increase
territorial claims. However, the
majority of Gray Zone challenges will be covert. The purpose of the activity and the linkage
of the activity to its sponsor will remain hidden. Political agitation, terrorist incidents
and/or criminal acts will be conducted to appear as unrelated activity to each
other and the sponsor, e.g. Russian troops without insignia in Eastern Ukraine
were described as local patriots. These
activities are designed by the adversary to achieve the maximum progress
towards the political desired outcome before conflict.
“Hybrid Warfare incorporates a range of different
modes of warfare including conventional capabilities, irregular tactics and
formations, terrorism acts including indiscriminate violence and coercion, and
criminal behaviour.”[iv] This is the tactical warning problem.
Warning depends on correctly assessed intelligence
from all-sources of information, including law enforcement. An adversary usually wishes to achieve an
element of surprise and Gray Zone activities support that objective. Therefore, situational awareness and understanding
of the Operational Environment and of potential adversaries (state and
non-state) must be maintained to assess indications of change that could warn
of signs of preparation, any change of intent for a hostile action, and the
action itself. But, care should be taken
to detect a “fig-leaf[v]”, Denial[vi] and Deception[vii].
The already difficult task of warning for the Intelligence
Community is becoming even harder. It will
need require concerted action in order to address this issue.
