UK: MILITARY SUPPORT TO UKRAINE

On 13 October, 2022, the day of a NATO Defense Ministers meeting that included 50 Ukraine supporting nations in Brussels, the UK Defence Secretary, Ben Wallace, announced further UK military support for Ukraine.  In response to the recent Russian missile bombardment of Ukrainian civilian targets, the package included:

• an unspecified number of AIM-120 Advanced Medium Range Air-to-Air Missile (AMRAAM) to used with the National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAMS) supplied by the US (see photo above), 
• hundreds of other AD missiles (unspecified), and 
• 18 x howitzer artillery guns.

So far, the UK is the 2nd largest contributor and is assessed to have supplied Ukraine:

• 6 x M270 Multiple Rocket Launch Systems (MRLS),
• >28 x M109 155mm Self-Propelled Howitzers,
• 36 x L119 105mm artillery and ammunition,
• 100,000 rounds of artillery ammunition,
• >10,000 anti-tank missiles, including: NLAW, Javelin and Brimstone.
• 6 x Stormer vehicles fitted for Starstreak Surface-to-Air missiles with hundreds of missiles,
• 2,600 anti-structure munitions,
• >2,000 Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), including the Black Hornet UAS,
• 6 x Remus 100 autonomous underwater mine-hunting systems,
• Counter-battery radar,
• Communications equipment,
• Electronic Warfare equipment,
• 3,000,000 rounds of small arms ammunition,
• 4.5 tonnes of plastic explosive,
• >5,000 x night-vision devices,
• 200 x armored vehicles,
• 120 x logistic vehicles,
• Medical supplies,
• 82,000 helmets,
• 8,450 sets of body armor, and
• 20,000 sets of winter clothing.

While the UK has mentioned supplying Ukraine until at least 2024 if required, the recent economic situation of the UK has deteriorated significantly! 

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CONCERN WITH US STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) was created in 1975 following the Arab oil embargo of 1973-74 to reduce the effects of supply disruption.  The SPR is administered by the Department of Energy.  It is the largest emergency supply in the world with a capacity for 714 million barrels.  The SPR is crude, not refined product, but the facilities in Texas and Louisiana are located near the major petrochemical and refining processing sites.  With the current policy of reduction in US self-produced energy, the SPR has again increased in importance.

The SPR has been used as resource to counter current increases to the US cost of fuel due to inflation, to limited effect.  Quantities have been sold overseas to US allies in Europe, but also to China!  The Wall Street Journal reported that, "The SPR declined by nearly 7 million barrels in the week ended September 16, leaving it at roughly 427 million barrels - the lowest since 1984.  For the first time since 1983, the SPR now holds less than commercial storage."  

Yesterday, four weeks before the US mid-term elections, in a rebuff to President Biden's wishes, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus (OPEC including non-member allies) (OPEC+) decided to reduce global production by 2 million bpd.  This will cause a global increase in price.  OPEC+ said the decision was based on "uncertainty that surrounds the global economic and oil market outlooks."  Biden quickly followed this decision with an announcement that he was authorizing a further release of 10 million barrels from the SPR.

Current, and potential international issues, pose threats of oil-shock including supply disruption, demand and higher prices.  Factors include: an increase in intensity and/or geographic spread of the conflict in Ukraine caused by Russia, conflict arising from the Iran nuclear issue, conflict caused by China invading Taiwan etc,  Indeed, this could self-exacerbated by the US imposing sanctions on any of the parties involved above.

The SPR is also important in respect of a US national emergency caused by natural disaster.

Despite current "green" policies, if the SPR is not quickly replenished and maintained it is a serious national security and economic error for the US.

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US MILITARY SUPPORT TO UKRAINE

 

Today, October 04, 2022, the White House announced that President Biden, during a phone call with President Zelenskyy, had promised a further military aid package using Presidential Drawdown Authority of c$625 million.

The package comprises:

• 4 x M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) with ammuniton,
• 16 x 155mm howitzers,
• 75,000 x 155mm artillery rounds,
• 500 x precision-guided 155mm rounds,
• 1,000 x 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine (RAAM) systems,
• 16 x 105mm howitzers (likely M119),
• 30,000 x 120mm mortar rounds,
• 200 x MaxxPro Mine-Resistant, Ambush-Protected (MRAP),
• 200,000 x small arms ammunition,
• Obstacle Emplacement Equipment, and
• Claymore Anti-Personnel Munitions.

The current total of military equipment provision can be seen here.

The HIMARS is a wheeled vehicle that fires GPS-guided missiles from pre-loaded pods of 6 missiles for rapid re-load.  Its accuracy and speed of movement is providing a superior artillery advantage.  The UK has provided 6 x M270 Multiple Rocket Launcher System (MRLS), a tracked version of the HIMARS carrying two pods that fire the same missiles.  This capability has had a significant effect on Russian forces.

This is the first aid package since the Russian State Duma approved "accession treaties" on October 03, 2022, for the annexation of occupied territory in the Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.  During the call, Biden also told Zelenskyy that the US will never recognize Russia's annexation of occupied territory.  The US prohibition on using US-supplied weapons against Russian targets on Russian territory, does not apply to these territories.

It is not reported whether the call included discussion of Zelenskyy's requests for, accelerated accession to NATO membership or the offer, to the US, of full visibility of Ukrainian targeting, with veto power, if the US supplies the Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS).  The provision of ATACMS would be significant capability increase, with a range of 300km compared to the Guided Mutiple Launch Rocket System (GMLRS) with a range of 70km.  The ATACMS can be fired from the M-142 HIMARS or the M-270 MRLS.

Today's announcement is an overt message to Russian President Putin of the long-term nature of support to Ukraine. 

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FURTHER MILITARY SUPPORT TO UKRAINE

Today, September 28, 2022, the DoD announced a commitment of $1.1bn under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI).  Under USAI, this has no immediate effect but starts a contract process with industry.     

The most significant capability on the list is provision of a further 18 M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) to the 16 already provided.  HIMARS is a wheeled vehicle that fires GPS-guided missles from pre-loaded pods of 6 missiles for rapid re-load.  The speed and accuracy has caused the Russians major problems.  The UK has provided six M270, a tracked version of the HIMARS carrying two pods that fire the same missiles.

The announcement was coincident with the opening of a meeting of "senior armaments directors" from the member nations of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group.  The group, chaired by US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, was meeting in Brussels to discuss increased production to meet or offset Ukraine's needs.

The discussions in Congress this week over provision of funding for the US Government, includes a broad Ukraine aid package of $12.3bn.  The package comprises $7.5bn in military assistance and $4.5bn in economic/humanitarian support.

Today's announcement and meeting, and the probable further provision of funds by Congress, are overt messages to Russian President Putin of the long-term nature of support to Ukraine. 

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PUTIN: DESPERATION IN UKRAINE?

Russian President, Vladimir Putin, has been ceding ground in a self-initiated military conflict with Ukraine that is becoming increasing unpopular at home.  Provision of new military capabilities, and the supply of arms and ammunition by supporting countries, has given Ukraine the capacity to fight.  Attrition of both personnel and equipment has impacted Russian ability to retain early gains and has undermined their ability to achieve campaign objectives.

With suspicious timing, on September 20, 2022, pro-Russian officials in four regions: the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) and the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions (see map) asked for referendums to join Russia.  Although Russia does not totally control any of the four regions the votes will take place between September 23 and September 27.  While the international community view these referendums as illegal, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, said the respective territories should decide their own fate.  On the same day, the Russian Duma passed a bill required by Putin that included severe penalties for desertion etc.; though it has yet to pass the Upper House.  And in a televised address last night, Putin tried to justify the measures and announced a partial mobilization.  Later, Defense Minister Shoigu announced this would initially be for 300,000 citizens with previous military experience.

How will these measures affect the conflict?  A formal annexation of the territories by Russia would allow Putin to argue that any attack would be against the Russian homeland and has implied the threat of the use of nuclear weapons.  The mobilization and training of those called-up will take time, and with the onset of winter, the direct military effect may just be a desperate effort by Putin to freeze the front lines.

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US/UKRAINE: MILITARY SUPPORT

Yesterday, September 15, 2022, the US announced the 21st Presidential Drawdown of DoD military equipment.  This follows from that announced on September 08, 2022, (see US/Ukraine: Further Military Support).

This announcement, is valued at $600 mn, and includes:

• Ammunition for the M142 High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS),
• 1,000 x 155mm precision-guided artillery rounds,
• 36,000 x 105mm rounds of ammunition (likely for the M119),
• 4 x Counter-artillery radars,
• Counter-Unmanned Aerial System,
• Mine-clearing equipment, and
• Night vision devices.

A meeting of "senior armaments directors" from the member nations of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group to discuss Ukrainian needs will be chaired by US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, on September 28, 2022 in Brussels to discuss increased production to meet or offset Ukraine's needs.

A summary of US military equipment supplied so far includes:

• >1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems,
• >8,500 Javelin anti-armor systems,
• >32,000 other anti-armor systems,
• >700 Switchblade Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS),
• >126 x 155mm howitzers (M777) and c 806,000 155mm artillery rounds,
• 2,000 x precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds,
• 20 x 105mm howitzers (M119) and 180,000 105mm artillery rounds,
• 16 x M142 High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and ammunition,
• 20 x 120mm mortar systems and 85,000 mortar rounds,
• 1,500 x Tube-launched, Optically-tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) missiles,
• 8 x National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and missiles,
• High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM),
• 20 x Mi-17 helicopters
• Hundreds of armored High-Mobility, Multi-Purpose, Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs),
• 200 x M113 Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs),
• 40 x MaxxPro Mine-Resistant, Ambush-Protected (MRAP) vehicles with mine-rollers,
• Mine-clearing equipment and systems,
• >10,000 grenade launchers and small-arms,
• >60,000,000 rounds of small-arms ammunition,
• >75,000 sets of body-armor and helmets,
• c700 Phoenix Ghost Tactical UAS,
• Puma UAS,
• 15 x Scan Eagle UAS,
• Unmanned coastal defense vehicles,
• >50 x counter-artillery radars,
• 4 x counter-mortar radars
• Counter UAS systems,
• 10 x air surveillance radars,
• 2 x Harpoon coastal defense systems,
• 18 x coastal and riverine patrol boats,
• M18A1 Claymore anti-personnel munitions,
• C-4 explosives, demolition munitions, and demolition equipment for obstacle-clearing,
• Tactical secure communications,
• Night-vision devices, thermal-imagery systems, optics, and laser range-finders,
• Commercial satellite imagery services,
• Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) protective gear,
• Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) protective equipment,
• 100 x armored medical treatment vehicles and medical supplies, and
• Electronic jamming equipment.

The announcement will replenish stocks depleted by Ukraine in their latest activities.  Recent Ukrainian activity has, not only constrained Russian campaign objectives in the south and the Donetsk Oblast but has seen significant territorial gains near Kharkiv and smaller successes on the diversionary front near Kherson.  If the type of military activity continues, Russia will not be able to sustain their forces as rapidly as Ukraine, likely leading to further losses.

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US/UKRAINE: FURTHER MILITARY SUPPORT

Yesterday, September 08, 2022, the US announced two further military aid packages for Ukraine.  These are in addition to that announced on August 24, 2022, (see Ukraine: Will Attrition Stop Putin?).

The announcement, by Secretary of Defense Austin, is of a further drawdown from US military stock, valued at $675 mn, and includes:

• Ammunition for M142 High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS),
• 1,000 x 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine Systems (RAAMS),
• 4 x 105mm howitzers (likely the M119) with 36,000 rounds of ammunition,
• Additional High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM),
• 100 x armored High-Mobility Multi-Purpose Wheeled Vehicle (HMMWV),
• 1,500,000 rounds of small arms ammunition,
• >5,000 anti-armor systems,
• Additional grenade launchers and small arms,
• 50 x armored medical treatment vehicles, and
• Night vision devices.

Austin also announced that he will host a meeting of "senior armaments directors" from member nations of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group to discuss Ukrainian needs.

Yesterday, Secretary of State Blinken, announced $2.2 bn of Foreign Military Financing, that will consist of $1bn for Ukraine and $1.2 bn to be shared between: Albania, Bosnia-Hercegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.  Foreign Military Financing is administered by the State Dept and is provided to recipients to buy US-made defense equipment.  In this case, the State Dept statement said that it should be used to "deter and defend against emergent threats to their sovereignty and territorial integrity, increase professionalism and modernization of their security forces, enhance partner integration with NATO, and strengthen defensive cyber, hybrid warfare, and conventional capabilities to counter Russian influence and aggression.

The Blinken announcement signals to Putin that Ukraine has international-backing for an extended conflict that is severely impacting Russians resources.  Ukrainian activity has so far constrained Russian campaign objectives in the south and the Donetsk Oblast.  Current activity has seen Ukraine having territorial success near Kherson and Kharkiv.  

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US/CHINA/TAIWAN: THE NEXT FLASHPOINT?

   

On September 16, 2022, the Taiwan Policy Act 2022 bill will be discussed in the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee.  As noted in, Xi and Taiwan: An Excessive Response of August 04, 2022, "This bi-partisan bill was "read-in" to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on June 16 and had a hearing on August 3.  The bill is described by its sponsor as "the most comprehensive restructuring of US policy toward Taiwan since the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979".  If passed, the three main provisions pose significant problems for the CCP/Xi:

• Designating Taiwan as a US major non-NATO ally,
• The provision of $4.5bn in security assistance over four years,
• Expansion of Taiwan's diplomatic space through participation in international organizations and multinational trade agreements."

The sponsor, Senator Robert Menedez (D-NJ), is Chair of the Foreign Relations Committee.

On September 02, 2022, the Biden Administration announced $1.9 bn of arms sales to Taiwan.  The package consists of:

• $655.4 mn of support to Taiwan's Surveillance Radar Program for AD warning
• $355 mn for AGM-84L-1 Block II Harpoon air-sea missiles
• $85.6 mn for AIM-9X Block II Sidewinder air-air missiles

However, there is $14 bn backlog, including for 100 Harpoon, and the bill aims to address this by requiring the State and Defense Depts to "prioritize and expedite" foreign military sales to Taiwan.

With China facing a number of other problems (see China/Taiwan: Update of September 03, 2022), and the 20th CCP National Congress scheduled for October 16, 2022, that is to vote on Xi's expected re-election to an unprecedented third term as Chairman.  So, how will Xi react if the Taiwan Policy Act 2022 moves forward?

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CHINA/TAIWAN: UPDATE

  

Since the last update, Xi and Taiwan: Update of August 15, 2022, a number of significant issues should be noted:

• Politically, the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been scheduled to begin on October 16, 2022. 
• On August 28, 2022, the USS Chancellorsville and USS Antietam conducted the first transit of the Taiwan Straits since Pelosi's visit.  Whilst being met with the usual Chinese rhetoric, the event passed normally.
• Economically, China is still experiencing significant troubles with its economy.  Indeed, Morgan Stanley have just stated that unless the Chinese authorities provide sufficient support to the real estate sector it could further damage the economy and stock market.  The Shanghai Composite is down 12% so far this year.
• On August 31, 2022, the UN Office of the High Commissioner on Human Rights published a report that concluded that China had committed "serious human rights violations" in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.
• Also on August 31, 2022, a revised defence budget, raised by 14% to $19.41 bn, submitted by the Ministry of National Defence (MND) to parliament included further purchases to:
• 29 x M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)
• 84 x MGM-140 ATACMS missiles
• 864 x "precision rockets" for HIMARS (presumably GMRLS)
• On September 01, 2022, Russia and China begun the Vostok 22 strategic military exercise.  Despite initial planning, Russian participation will severely-reduced due to deployments to Ukraine.
• Also on September 01, 2022, President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan met with Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona.  The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the largest contract chip-maker and a major Apple supplier is constructing a$12 billion manufacturing plant in Arizona.  Taiwan also has a link with Arizona as its F-16 pilots are trained at Luke AFB.
• Following some Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) incidents, Maj Gen Lin Wen-huang of the Taiwan MND, said on August 31, 2022, that Taiwan would counterattack if China challenges the sovereignty of Taiwan.  A UAS, described by China as civilian, was indeed shot-down on September 01, 2022.
• On September 02, 2022, the MND, in a report to Taiwan's parliament, said that China continued to: prepare to attack Taiwan, had been simulating attacks against the US Navy and to block foreign reinforcement.
• Also on September 02, 2022, the Biden Administration announced $1.9 bn of arms sales to Taiwan.  The package includes:
• $655 mn of support to Taiwan's surveillance radar system for AD warning
• $355 mn for Harpoon air-sea missiles
• $85 mn for Sidewinder air-air missiles

The state of the economy and issues around COVID-19 have reflected badly on Xi.  However, it remains highly-likely that Xi will be successful in an unprecedented re-election to a third term as Chairman. 

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UKRAINE: WILL ATTRITION STOP PUTIN?

Today, August 24, 2022, Ukraine should be celebrating its 1991 declaration as an independent nation, however it is also the six-month anniversary of Russia's second invasion of the country (Russia invaded Crimea in 2014).

Yesterday, on a virtual forum of world leaders that included forty presidents or prime ministers, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said "It all began in Crimea and it will end in Crimea" and "It is necessary to liberate Crimea.  This will be the resusitation of world law and order."  UK PM Boris Johnson, was in Kyiv and reiterated long-term UK support.  NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg also pledged support in this "grinding war of attrition" and that "This is a battle of the wills and a battle of logistics."

This month, the US has already announced considerable military aid to Ukraine (see articles of August 19, 2022 and  August 8, 2022).  However, on August 24, 2022, the US also announced $2.98Bn military aid package.  This is a longer-term security package under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, with the Ukraine purchasing the items unlike previous packages that were drawn from US stock.  The package includes money for:

• Puma and Scan Eagle UAS,
• the Vampire anti-UAS system,
• six NASAMS air defense systems,
• 24 counter-artillery radars,
• precision artillery systems, and
• >300,000 rounds of artillery and mortar ammunition.

The UK also announced a further $63.5Mn package including 850 Black Hornet UAS and 1,000 anti-tank loitering munitions.  The Black Hornet is a micro-UAS, designed for urban use, that provides a live video feed.  This package is in addition to an earlier $307Mn August provision of three M270 MRLS with M31A1 precision missiles.  Other nations also announced packages of military assistance.

Today's US announcement, and the comments yesterday, were public messages to many audiences, but will have been mainly targeted at Putin in that Ukraine has international-backing for extended conflict that will severely impact Russians resources.  An emerging new feature of war is Ukraine initiating campaign offensive actions.  Ukrainian effort in the south has been to constrain the Black Sea Fleet in coastal defense and push Russian forces back from Kherson.  This effort has included operations in Crimea.  This counters one of the main Russian objectives of Odessa and control of the coast.  In the Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian effort has been to recapture territory.  This hampers a main Russian objective of control of the Oblast and their wish to hold a referendum.  These Ukrainian efforts included behind-the-lines activities such as: car bombs, targeted killings and sabotage.  Attacks have also included ammunition facilities and bridges to deny resupply.  With concern for rear-area security, resupply and constant attrition, the original Russian planning assumptions have changed considerably.  Among many economic problems, Russia has been projected to lose 6% of GDP in 2022.

Will attrition stop Putin prosecuting a conflict that Ukraine can extend in time?  How will his strategy change?

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US MILITARY SUPPORT TO UKRAINE

On Friday, August 19, 2022, a senior defense official briefed on a further tranche of US military assistance to Ukraine.  The c$775 Mn "what they need, when they need it" package follows the c$1 Bn package announced on August 08,2022.  This raises the amount of security assistance committed by the Biden Administration to c$10.5 Bn since the Russian invasion 0n February 24, 2022.  

The package includes:

• More ammunition for HIMARS,
• 16 x 105mm howitzers and 36,000 rounds,
• 15 x Scan Eagle UAS,
• 40 x MRAP vehicles and add
• Additional HARM missiles for Ukrainian aircraft, and
• Additional anti-armor missiles.

The supply and signifigance of the M142 High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) to Ukraine was noted on August 8, 2022.  However, this is the first US provision of M119 105mm Howitzers, although it has been providing ammunition for the 36 x L119 105mm Howitzers provided by the UK.  The Scan Eagle will assist in rapid, accurate target acquisition.

Also, on August 19, 2022, Ukraine's Defense Minister Reznikov stated that it had been agreed with the US not to use "western" weapons on the Russian territory, but there would be no restrictions in Crimea, Donbass or other territory not now controlled by Kyiv.  An emerging new feature of war is Ukraine initiating campaign offensive actions.  Ukrainian effort in the south has been to constrain the Black Sea Fleet in coastal defense and push Russian forces back from Kherson.  This effort has included operations in Crimea.  This counters one of the main Russian objectives of Odessa and control of the coast.  In the Donetsk Oblast, Ukrainian effort has been to recapture territory.  This hampers a main Russian objective of control of the Oblast and their wish to hold a referendum.  These Ukrainian efforts included behind-the-lines activities such as: car bombs, targeted killings and sabotage.  Attacks have also included ammunition facilities and bridges to deny resupply.  With concern for rear-area security, resupply and constant attrition, the original Russian planning assumptions have changed considerably.

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Xi and Taiwan: Update

 

Following the August 2, 2022, visit to Taiwan by US Speaker Pelosi, a US Congressional Delegation arrived for a two-day visit on August 14, 2022.  Led by Sen Markey (D), it included Reps. Garamendi, Lowenthal and Beyer (D) and Radewagen (R).  Their meetings, including with Taiwan's President Tsai Ing-wen, discussed: regional security, trade, investment and US/Taiwan relations.

China reacted to Pelosi's visit with strong rhetoric, diplomatic measures including cancellation of: phone calls, senior military meetings, combatting transnational crime and suspension of climate change talks, and also with military exercises including: a partial naval blockade, air incursions, live missile firings, artillery firings etc.  The diplomatic measures remain in place and the military exercises (due to conclude today), following this visit, are now to be continued.  A Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson, Wang Wenbin, said today that "A handful of US politicians, in collusion with the separatist forces of Taiwan independence, are trying to challenge the One-China principle, which is out of their depth and doomed to failure.

As discussed in Taiwan: Is 2022 the Crucial Year, China is experiencing significant troubles with COVID and its economy.  This has continued with China's Central Bank cutting rates today after economic activity slowed in July, both in consumer spending and factory output.  This is reflecting badly on Xi.  The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is due to take place (probably in November) where Xi's re-election to Chairman was almost assured.

A military absorption of Taiwan is a CCP objective if it cannot be achieved politically.  Xi views the US as weak, politically-divided, and with a poor economy.  He is also aware of Taiwan, Japan and Australia increasing their military capabilities.

So, how much pressure does Xi feel under?  As raised in, Xi and Taiwan: An Excessive Response, he may have felt that the Pelosi visit was not a one-off visit but part of the political process for Senate Bill S4428 - The Taiwan Policy Act 2022.  This most recent visit has probably reinforced his perception.  The bill is described by its sponsor as "the most comprehensive restructuring of US policy toward Taiwan since the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979".  If passed, the three main provisions pose significant problems for the CCP/Xi:

• Designating Taiwan as a US major non-NATO ally,
• The provision of $4.5bn in security assistance over four years,
• Expansion of Taiwan's diplomatic space through participation in international organisations and multinational trade agreements.

If Xi feels his position is threatened, and the Senate Bill threatens long-term CCP policy, he may feel that he will have to act before the 20th Congress in order to be re-elected.

For your kind consideration, I would appreciate any support with my cancer expenses: https://gofund.me/e5992c63. 

FURTHER US SUPPORT TO UKRAINE

A DOD press release of August 8, 2022, announced another Presidential Drawdown of military equipment for Ukraine.  The Presidential Drawdown, the 18th of the Biden Administration, authorizes a withdrawal from US military stock and this is the largest and is valued at c$1 Bn.  This raises the amount of security assistance committed by the Biden Administration to $9.8 Bn so far.  Also, 0n August 8, 2022, the World Bank announced $4.5 Bn for social payments, healthcare services and pensions.  The cost will be met by the US.  Then, on August 9, 2022, the State Department announced they will provide $89 Mn for demining.

One significant system so far shipped to Ukraine is the M142 High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS).  On August 8, 2022, Ukraine's Defense Minister, Oleksii Reznnikov said that the system had been used to destroy more than 50 Russian ammunition depots since deliveries started.  Ukrainian ground commanders have credited the system for stalling the Russian advance on Donbas.  As well as engaging direct threats, the system has been used to target other Russian logistics and to stop massing of infantry.

The HIMARS (see above) is a wheeled vehicle that fires GPS-guided missles from pre-loaded pods of 6 missiles for rapid re-load.  The speed and accuracy is causing the Russians problems in trying to engage the vehicles.  The DoD have said that they will provide a 'steady-stream" of missiles, though no more launch vehicles to add to the 16 provided.  The UK has provided three M270, a tracked version of the HIMARS carrying two pods that fire the same missiles.

For your kind consideration, I would appreciate any support with my cancer expenses: https://gofund.me/e5992c63. 

Xi and Taiwan: An Excessive Response?

Following the August 2, 2022, visit to Taiwan by US Speaker Pelosi, China has reacted with strong rhetoric and military exercises including: naval blockade, air incursions, live missile firings, artillery firings etc.  This has led to airlines having to cancel flights and ships being diverted.

As discussed in my previous article (Taiwan: Is 2022 the Crucial Year), China is experiencing significant troubles with COVID and its economy.  This is reflecting badly on Xi.  The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is due to take place (probably in October or November) where Xi's re-election to Chairman was almost assured.

Previously, US and Taiwanese officials estimated a Chinese invasion between 2025 and 2030, yet recently that changed to within the next 18 months.  A military absorption of Taiwan is a CCP objective if it cannot be achieved politically.  Xi views the US as weak, politically-divided, and with a poor economy.  He is also aware of Taiwan, Japan and Australia increasing their military capabilities.

So, how much pressure does Xi feel under?  Well, he may feel that the Pelosi visit was not a one-off visit but part of the political process for Senate Bill S4428 - The Taiwan Policy Act 2022.  This bi-partisan bill was "read-in" to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on June 16 and had a hearing on August 3.  The bill is described by its sponsor as "the most comprehensive restructuring of US policy toward Taiwan since the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979".  If passed, the three main provisions pose significant problems for the CCP/Xi:

• Designating Taiwan as a US major non-NATO ally,
• The provision of $4.5bn in security assistance over four years,
• Expansion of Taiwan's diplomatic space through participation in international organisations and multinational trade agreements.

If Xi feels his position is threatened, and the Senate Bill threatens long-term CCP policy, he may feel that he will have to act before the 20th Congress in order to be re-elected.

For your kind consideration, I would appreciate any support with my cancer expenses: https://gofund.me/e5992c63. 

URBAN OPERATIONS

 

In July 2022, the Department of the Army and the United States Marine Corps published ATP 3-06/MCTP10B on Urban Operations.  It is a shame that further work could not be completed before publication!

In Paragraph 1-2 it states that "The urban environment comprises three parts: (1) complex manmade physical terrain, (2) population of significant size and density, and (3) supporting infrastructure. JP 3-06 refers to these three parts as the urban triad. Cities are unique for the density of these three features—that density is a key aspect of the inherent complexity of urban operations."

In Paragraph 1-5 it states that "The complex and dynamic interactions and relationships among the key components of people, terrain, and infrastructure create an overlapping and interdependent system of systems that presents unique challenges. A system is a functionally, physically, and/or behaviorally related group of regularly interacting or interdependent elements; that group of elements forming a unified whole (JP 3-0)."  "Understanding the operational variables of political, military, economic, social, information, infrastructure, physical terrain, and time (PMESII-PT) is critical to conducting mission analysis and intelligence preparation of the battlefield/battlespace (IPB) within the military decision-making process (MDMP)/Marine Corps planning process (MCPP) and the operations process, and is critical to establishing and maintaining a common operational picture (COP) in an urban area."  "Civil considerations of areas, structures, capabilities, organizations, people, and events (ASCOPE) significantly affect UO."

However, in Paragraph 1-1 two definitions are given!  "The Army defines urban operations as operations across the range of military operations planned and conducted on, or against, objectives on a topographical complex and its adjacent natural terrain, where manmade construction or the density of population are the dominant features. In the Marine Corps, military operations on urbanized terrain (MOUT) are all military actions that are planned and conducted on a topographical complex and its adjacent natural terrain where manmade construction is the dominant feature. It includes combat in cities, which is that portion of military operations on urbanized terrain involving house-to-house and street-by-street fighting in towns and cities."  So, the USMC definition excludes the density of population and both make no mention of infrastructure!

This is unnecessary and undermines the good work elsewhere in the publication.

For your kind consideration, I would appreciate any support with my cancer expenses: https://gofund.me/e5992c63.

TAIWAN: IS 2022 THE CRUCIAL YEAR?

China has been very belligerent recently.  Language used before the war with India in 1962 and with Vietnam in 1979 has been used.  Chinese warships are in Japanese territorial waters near the Senkakus in the East China Sea and Chinese troops are in Indian territory in Ladakh in the Himalayas.  Strong rhetoric has been used directly to President Biden by Chairman Xi about a visit to Taiwan by Speaker Pelosi, where it appears the US has caved under the pressure.  But, why this behaviour.

China is experiencing significant troubles with COVID and its economy.  The real estate market that accounts for c30% GDP is deep in trouble. Investors and companies are leaving and stock on the Hang Seng China Enterprises index lost over 10% last month.  The Bank of International Settlements estimated Chinese debt to be c290% of GDP in late 2020, and it has worsened.  It has even been officially admitted that the 2022 GDP target of 5.5% will be missed.  There have been runs on banks and banking fraud is a major issue.  This is reflecting badly on Xi.

The 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party is due to take place later this year, probably in October or November.  This should have been a simple matter for Xi to be re-elected as Chairman due to the influence of his many supporters in prominent positions and the 2018 change to the CCP Constitution allowing more than two-terms and not having to retire at 68 years old. 

But what does this mean for Taiwan?  Previously, US and Taiwanese officials estimated a Chinese invasion between 2025 and 2030, yet recently that changed to within the next 18 months.  However, with Xi's difficulties, is he looking for an excuse to execute an action from a range of options that he thinks will be popular enough to guarantee him retaining his position: taking over islands near the mainland, through a blockade of Taiwan to a full-scale invasion.  Xi views the US as weak, politically-divided, and with a poor economy.  He is also aware of Taiwan, Japan and Australia increasing their military capabilities.

How much pressure does Xi feel under?  If he feels his position is threatened, he will have to act before the Congress.  It may be a factor in his calculations, but 1 October is National Day, that marks the formal declaration of the People's Republic of China on 1 October 1949 and the Chinese Communist Party defeat of the Government of the Republic of China and their retreat to Taiwan (Formosa).

For your kind consideration, I would appreciate any support with my cancer expenses: https://gofund.me/e5992c63.

THE HOUSE OF COMMONS REPORT ON: THE INTEGRATED REVIEW OF DEFENCE, SECURITY, DEVELOPMENT AND FOREIGN POLICY

On 16 Mar 2022, the Cabinet Office published "Global Britain in a Competitive Age: The Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy", followed later in the month by "Defence in a Competitive Age" and the "Defence and Security Industrial Policy", both published by the Ministry of Defence.

Today, 28 July 2022, the House of Commons Defence Committee published a report, "The Integrated Review, Defence in a Competitive Age and the Defence and Security Industrial Strategy", that reviewed implementation and changed circumstances (including Ukraine).  The government has two months to respond to the findings.

The following "Conclusions and Recommendations" were made:

• There is a need for a New Chapter update to the IR and the Defence Command Paper which takes into account the events in Afghanistan and Ukraine. The document should then set out how the analysis of the strategic context has changed and what decisions in the Command Paper the UK Government is reviewing.
• Foreign policy decisions and consequent actions by UK Defence need to be supported by the UK public. The lack of organisation round the withdrawal from Afghanistan damaged the Government’s standing. However, so far, engagement with the public on the Russian offensive in Ukraine and British support for Ukraine has been regular and transparent. We welcome this approach: the Government needs to build on this. 
• We recommend that the MOD publish annual figures for the assistance provided to other Government Departments and to public authorities. This list should include the number of personnel deployed, the length of deployment, the task they were deployed for, the cost of the task and the renumeration received by the Department. Furthermore, we recommend that the MOD commit to publishing its response to the Reserves Review in the Autumn.
• There is a danger of over-stretch. The Government needs to ensure that the military is properly resourced with both equipment and personnel to carry out the tasks required of it. To do this, we recommend there be a wholesale re-examination of the decisions on capabilities and timeframes within the Defence Command Paper and the decisions taken in it following events in Ukraine.
• The Government should publish the actions agreed by each of the Departments as a result of the lessons learned exercises which examined the response to the Afghanistan crisis, together with a time frame for implementation. 
• There are significant challenges to integration but none that concerns us as much as the MOD’s procurement difficulties. For instance, the MOD has made it clear that in order to achieve integration and utilise new technologies, it needs an effective digital network. Without that network, few of the suggested benefits are accrued. Yet its track record in large and complex programmes is abysmal. We recommend that the Government identify those programmes which are critical enablers and ensure there is additional scrutiny of them. Furthermore, it needs to identify international partners with whom it can collaborate on the technologically advanced equipment that the UK Armed Forces require. 
• As well as an annual report on the implementation of the IR, we recommend the MOD produce an annual evaluation of what has been achieved in their implementation of Defence in a Competitive Age and DSIS. This evaluation should include case studies which demonstrate implementation (examples of integration with other Government Departments, allies and partners, and defence industry). It should also include an account of how certain events have led to a review of thinking and any subsequent decisions made which change previously agreed outcomes. This will allow Parliamentary Committees and the UK public to scrutinise the implementation of the Integrated Review, Defence in a Competitive Age and the Defence Security and Industrial Strategy.

Earlier this week, 26 July 2022, the Secretary of State for Defence, Ben Wallace, stated that the UK needs a bigger army.  He has not yet stated who he will support in the current Conservative Party leadership contest.  Ms Liz Truss, has stated she will increase defence spending to 3% of GDP by the end of the decade, whereas Rishi Sunak has said he views the NATO commitment of 2% of GDP as "a floor not a ceiling" and said that defence spending would rise to 2.5% over time.  Wallace also said that any increase in funding would lead to equipment programmes being bought faster. 

The new Prime Minister/Conservative Party leader will be in office by the time the response to this critical report is due.

For your kind consideration, I would appreciate any support with my cancer expenses: https://gofund.me/e5992c63.