FURTHER MILITARY SUPPORT TO UKRAINE

Today, September 28, 2022, the DoD announced a commitment of $1.1bn under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI).  Under USAI, this has no immediate effect but starts a contract process with industry.     

The most significant capability on the list is provision of a further 18 M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) to the 16 already provided.  HIMARS is a wheeled vehicle that fires GPS-guided missles from pre-loaded pods of 6 missiles for rapid re-load.  The speed and accuracy has caused the Russians major problems.  The UK has provided six M270, a tracked version of the HIMARS carrying two pods that fire the same missiles.

The announcement was coincident with the opening of a meeting of "senior armaments directors" from the member nations of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group.  The group, chaired by US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, was meeting in Brussels to discuss increased production to meet or offset Ukraine's needs.

The discussions in Congress this week over provision of funding for the US Government, includes a broad Ukraine aid package of $12.3bn.  The package comprises $7.5bn in military assistance and $4.5bn in economic/humanitarian support.

Today's announcement and meeting, and the probable further provision of funds by Congress, are overt messages to Russian President Putin of the long-term nature of support to Ukraine. 

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PUTIN: DESPERATION IN UKRAINE?

Russian President, Vladimir Putin, has been ceding ground in a self-initiated military conflict with Ukraine that is becoming increasing unpopular at home.  Provision of new military capabilities, and the supply of arms and ammunition by supporting countries, has given Ukraine the capacity to fight.  Attrition of both personnel and equipment has impacted Russian ability to retain early gains and has undermined their ability to achieve campaign objectives.

With suspicious timing, on September 20, 2022, pro-Russian officials in four regions: the Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), the Luhansk People's Republic (LPR) and the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions (see map) asked for referendums to join Russia.  Although Russia does not totally control any of the four regions the votes will take place between September 23 and September 27.  While the international community view these referendums as illegal, Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, said the respective territories should decide their own fate.  On the same day, the Russian Duma passed a bill required by Putin that included severe penalties for desertion etc.; though it has yet to pass the Upper House.  And in a televised address last night, Putin tried to justify the measures and announced a partial mobilization.  Later, Defense Minister Shoigu announced this would initially be for 300,000 citizens with previous military experience.

How will these measures affect the conflict?  A formal annexation of the territories by Russia would allow Putin to argue that any attack would be against the Russian homeland and has implied the threat of the use of nuclear weapons.  The mobilization and training of those called-up will take time, and with the onset of winter, the direct military effect may just be a desperate effort by Putin to freeze the front lines.

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US/UKRAINE: MILITARY SUPPORT

Yesterday, September 15, 2022, the US announced the 21st Presidential Drawdown of DoD military equipment.  This follows from that announced on September 08, 2022, (see US/Ukraine: Further Military Support).

This announcement, is valued at $600 mn, and includes:

• Ammunition for the M142 High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS),
• 1,000 x 155mm precision-guided artillery rounds,
• 36,000 x 105mm rounds of ammunition (likely for the M119),
• 4 x Counter-artillery radars,
• Counter-Unmanned Aerial System,
• Mine-clearing equipment, and
• Night vision devices.

A meeting of "senior armaments directors" from the member nations of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group to discuss Ukrainian needs will be chaired by US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin, on September 28, 2022 in Brussels to discuss increased production to meet or offset Ukraine's needs.

A summary of US military equipment supplied so far includes:

• >1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems,
• >8,500 Javelin anti-armor systems,
• >32,000 other anti-armor systems,
• >700 Switchblade Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS),
• >126 x 155mm howitzers (M777) and c 806,000 155mm artillery rounds,
• 2,000 x precision-guided 155mm artillery rounds,
• 20 x 105mm howitzers (M119) and 180,000 105mm artillery rounds,
• 16 x M142 High-Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS) and ammunition,
• 20 x 120mm mortar systems and 85,000 mortar rounds,
• 1,500 x Tube-launched, Optically-tracked, Wire-guided (TOW) missiles,
• 8 x National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems (NASAMS) and missiles,
• High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM),
• 20 x Mi-17 helicopters
• Hundreds of armored High-Mobility, Multi-Purpose, Wheeled Vehicles (HMMWVs),
• 200 x M113 Armored Personnel Carriers (APCs),
• 40 x MaxxPro Mine-Resistant, Ambush-Protected (MRAP) vehicles with mine-rollers,
• Mine-clearing equipment and systems,
• >10,000 grenade launchers and small-arms,
• >60,000,000 rounds of small-arms ammunition,
• >75,000 sets of body-armor and helmets,
• c700 Phoenix Ghost Tactical UAS,
• Puma UAS,
• 15 x Scan Eagle UAS,
• Unmanned coastal defense vehicles,
• >50 x counter-artillery radars,
• 4 x counter-mortar radars
• Counter UAS systems,
• 10 x air surveillance radars,
• 2 x Harpoon coastal defense systems,
• 18 x coastal and riverine patrol boats,
• M18A1 Claymore anti-personnel munitions,
• C-4 explosives, demolition munitions, and demolition equipment for obstacle-clearing,
• Tactical secure communications,
• Night-vision devices, thermal-imagery systems, optics, and laser range-finders,
• Commercial satellite imagery services,
• Explosive Ordnance Disposal (EOD) protective gear,
• Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) protective equipment,
• 100 x armored medical treatment vehicles and medical supplies, and
• Electronic jamming equipment.

The announcement will replenish stocks depleted by Ukraine in their latest activities.  Recent Ukrainian activity has, not only constrained Russian campaign objectives in the south and the Donetsk Oblast but has seen significant territorial gains near Kharkiv and smaller successes on the diversionary front near Kherson.  If the type of military activity continues, Russia will not be able to sustain their forces as rapidly as Ukraine, likely leading to further losses.

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US/UKRAINE: FURTHER MILITARY SUPPORT

Yesterday, September 08, 2022, the US announced two further military aid packages for Ukraine.  These are in addition to that announced on August 24, 2022, (see Ukraine: Will Attrition Stop Putin?).

The announcement, by Secretary of Defense Austin, is of a further drawdown from US military stock, valued at $675 mn, and includes:

• Ammunition for M142 High-Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS),
• 1,000 x 155mm rounds of Remote Anti-Armor Mine Systems (RAAMS),
• 4 x 105mm howitzers (likely the M119) with 36,000 rounds of ammunition,
• Additional High-speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARM),
• 100 x armored High-Mobility Multi-Purpose Wheeled Vehicle (HMMWV),
• 1,500,000 rounds of small arms ammunition,
• >5,000 anti-armor systems,
• Additional grenade launchers and small arms,
• 50 x armored medical treatment vehicles, and
• Night vision devices.

Austin also announced that he will host a meeting of "senior armaments directors" from member nations of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group to discuss Ukrainian needs.

Yesterday, Secretary of State Blinken, announced $2.2 bn of Foreign Military Financing, that will consist of $1bn for Ukraine and $1.2 bn to be shared between: Albania, Bosnia-Hercegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Kosovo, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia.  Foreign Military Financing is administered by the State Dept and is provided to recipients to buy US-made defense equipment.  In this case, the State Dept statement said that it should be used to "deter and defend against emergent threats to their sovereignty and territorial integrity, increase professionalism and modernization of their security forces, enhance partner integration with NATO, and strengthen defensive cyber, hybrid warfare, and conventional capabilities to counter Russian influence and aggression.

The Blinken announcement signals to Putin that Ukraine has international-backing for an extended conflict that is severely impacting Russians resources.  Ukrainian activity has so far constrained Russian campaign objectives in the south and the Donetsk Oblast.  Current activity has seen Ukraine having territorial success near Kherson and Kharkiv.  

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US/CHINA/TAIWAN: THE NEXT FLASHPOINT?

   

On September 16, 2022, the Taiwan Policy Act 2022 bill will be discussed in the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee.  As noted in, Xi and Taiwan: An Excessive Response of August 04, 2022, "This bi-partisan bill was "read-in" to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on June 16 and had a hearing on August 3.  The bill is described by its sponsor as "the most comprehensive restructuring of US policy toward Taiwan since the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979".  If passed, the three main provisions pose significant problems for the CCP/Xi:

• Designating Taiwan as a US major non-NATO ally,
• The provision of $4.5bn in security assistance over four years,
• Expansion of Taiwan's diplomatic space through participation in international organizations and multinational trade agreements."

The sponsor, Senator Robert Menedez (D-NJ), is Chair of the Foreign Relations Committee.

On September 02, 2022, the Biden Administration announced $1.9 bn of arms sales to Taiwan.  The package consists of:

• $655.4 mn of support to Taiwan's Surveillance Radar Program for AD warning
• $355 mn for AGM-84L-1 Block II Harpoon air-sea missiles
• $85.6 mn for AIM-9X Block II Sidewinder air-air missiles

However, there is $14 bn backlog, including for 100 Harpoon, and the bill aims to address this by requiring the State and Defense Depts to "prioritize and expedite" foreign military sales to Taiwan.

With China facing a number of other problems (see China/Taiwan: Update of September 03, 2022), and the 20th CCP National Congress scheduled for October 16, 2022, that is to vote on Xi's expected re-election to an unprecedented third term as Chairman.  So, how will Xi react if the Taiwan Policy Act 2022 moves forward?

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CHINA/TAIWAN: UPDATE

  

Since the last update, Xi and Taiwan: Update of August 15, 2022, a number of significant issues should be noted:

• Politically, the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has been scheduled to begin on October 16, 2022. 
• On August 28, 2022, the USS Chancellorsville and USS Antietam conducted the first transit of the Taiwan Straits since Pelosi's visit.  Whilst being met with the usual Chinese rhetoric, the event passed normally.
• Economically, China is still experiencing significant troubles with its economy.  Indeed, Morgan Stanley have just stated that unless the Chinese authorities provide sufficient support to the real estate sector it could further damage the economy and stock market.  The Shanghai Composite is down 12% so far this year.
• On August 31, 2022, the UN Office of the High Commissioner on Human Rights published a report that concluded that China had committed "serious human rights violations" in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region.
• Also on August 31, 2022, a revised defence budget, raised by 14% to $19.41 bn, submitted by the Ministry of National Defence (MND) to parliament included further purchases to:
• 29 x M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS)
• 84 x MGM-140 ATACMS missiles
• 864 x "precision rockets" for HIMARS (presumably GMRLS)
• On September 01, 2022, Russia and China begun the Vostok 22 strategic military exercise.  Despite initial planning, Russian participation will severely-reduced due to deployments to Ukraine.
• Also on September 01, 2022, President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan met with Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona.  The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is the largest contract chip-maker and a major Apple supplier is constructing a$12 billion manufacturing plant in Arizona.  Taiwan also has a link with Arizona as its F-16 pilots are trained at Luke AFB.
• Following some Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) incidents, Maj Gen Lin Wen-huang of the Taiwan MND, said on August 31, 2022, that Taiwan would counterattack if China challenges the sovereignty of Taiwan.  A UAS, described by China as civilian, was indeed shot-down on September 01, 2022.
• On September 02, 2022, the MND, in a report to Taiwan's parliament, said that China continued to: prepare to attack Taiwan, had been simulating attacks against the US Navy and to block foreign reinforcement.
• Also on September 02, 2022, the Biden Administration announced $1.9 bn of arms sales to Taiwan.  The package includes:
• $655 mn of support to Taiwan's surveillance radar system for AD warning
• $355 mn for Harpoon air-sea missiles
• $85 mn for Sidewinder air-air missiles

The state of the economy and issues around COVID-19 have reflected badly on Xi.  However, it remains highly-likely that Xi will be successful in an unprecedented re-election to a third term as Chairman. 

For your kind consideration, I would appreciate any support with my cancer expenses: https://gofund.me/e5992c63.